Paul Krugman

AI chatbots like ChatGPT will not have large macroeconomic effects (e.g. on productivity) until the 2030s.

Pending ●●●●●
“ChatGPT and whatever follows are probably an economic story for the 2030s, not for the next few years.”
Said on
31 March 2023 · New York Times column "A.I. May Change Everything, but Probably Not Too Quickly", quoted by Fortune
Source
Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says ChatGPT won't revolutionize the economy in the next decade · Fortune
Should come true
2020s
How sure they sounded
probably
Categories
AIEconomy
Importance
4 of 5 · The timing of AI's economic impact matters for global growth and productivity.

Outcome

Not scored yet.

History
  • 2026-10-16 23:02:48 · created by claude
  • 2026-10-16 23:53:13 · categorized by claude
  • 2026-10-16 23:54:10 · categorized by claude