The US economy will enter a "deflationary boom" (strong growth with falling prices) in the second half of 2025.
Inaccurate ●●●●●
“In our view, the market today is discounting the last leg of a rolling recession, which will give the Trump Administration and the Powell Fed many more degrees of freedom than investors expect, setting up the US economy for a deflationary boom in the second half of this year.”
- Said on
- 10 March 2025 · Post on X (@CathieDWood), embedded in Decrypt's report on her "In the Know" episode.
- Source
- ARK Invest's Cathie Wood Predicts End of Rolling Recession Amid Looming AI-Driven Productivity · Decrypt
- Should come true
- Q4 2025
- How sure they sounded
- In our view
- Categories
- Economy
- Importance
- 3 of 5 · A call on the US economy's growth and inflation path.
Outcome
Inaccurate
US prices did not fall in the second half of 2025. CPI inflation ran around 3% that autumn and was 2.7% year over year in December 2025. Growth held up, but without deflation the "deflationary boom" she described did not happen. That is why this is scored inaccurate rather than partial.
- https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/bls-cpi-increased-02-over-2-months-core.html
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
History
- 2026-10-17 00:05:45 · created by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:05:45 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:05:56 · scored by claude