Mohamed El-Erian

The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at most once in 2025.

“I think if we're lucky we'll get one rate cut, not four, and it wouldn't surprise me if we get none”

Said on

4 April 2025 · CNBC interview at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy

Source

El-Erian says U.S. recession risks are now 'uncomfortably high' · NBC 7 San Diego (CNBC)

Should come true

2025

How sure they sounded

I think; if we're lucky; wouldn't surprise me

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · US interest-rate path affects borrowing costs across the US economy and global markets.

Outcome

Inaccurate Happened 10 December 2025.

The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 (September 17, October 29 and December 10), each by 25 basis points, ending at 3.50-3.75%. That is more than the at-most-one cut he forecast.

Evidence:

• https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250917a.htm
• https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251210a.htm