Michael Burry

In the second half of 2023, US CPI inflation will fall sharply (possibly below zero) and the US will be in a recession by any definition.

“We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the US in recession by any definition.”

Said on

2 January 2023 · Post on Twitter

Source

Michael Burry: 'U.S. in recession by any definition,' inflation to see 'another spike' as Fed cuts rates · Kitco News

Should come true

2023

How sure they sounded

likely; possibly

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · A US recession and deflation would be major national economic events.

Outcome

Inaccurate

CPI inflation did fall, from 6.5% to 3.4% year over year by December 2023, but it never went negative. The NBER has dated no US recession in 2023. The specific claims, deflation and a recession "by any definition", did not happen; only the generic "CPI lower" part did.

Evidence:

• https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2024/consumer-price-index-2023-in-review.htm
• https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating