A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Allan Lichtman | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% | |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 50% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 67% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 11 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 67% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 71% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 12 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 44% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 8 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 50% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% | |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% | |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“And they're about comparable with the experts by now. They'll soon be considerably better because they'll have had a lot more experience.”Health
“my basic prediction is that AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.”Health
“This might seem radical, but life expectancy increased almost 2x in the 20th century (from ~40 years to ~75), so it’s “on trend” that the “compressed 21st” would double it again to 150.”Health
“By 2029, you'll get back a full year.”Health
“Your children are going to live to 100 and not have cancer because of technology.”Health
“I would imagine, given the size of our country and the diversity of vaccination versus not vaccination, that it likely will be more than a couple of weeks, probably by the end of January, I would think”Health
“By the end of 2022 we should be basically completely back to normal”Health
“If you project realistically, when we will be able to get enough data to be able to say that elementary school children will be able to be vaccinated, I would think that would be, at the earliest, the end of the year, and very likely the first quarter of 2022,”Health
“by the time we get to April, that will be what I would call for better wording 'open season,' namely that virtually everybody and anybody, in any category, could start to get vaccinated”Health
“We're about to go into a dark winter, a dark winter”Health
“But by the time you mobilize the distribution of the vaccine and get a majority or more of the population vaccinated and protected, that's likely not going to happen until the end of 2021,”Health
“I still think there is a reasonably good chance that by the very beginning of 2021, if we're going to have a vaccine, that we will have it by then,”Health
“And I think we're going to be successful in doing it, and hopefully by the end of the year.”Health
“we will have coronavirus in the Fall. I am convinced of that because of the degree of transmissibility that has the global nature.”Health
“The minimum number was 100,000 lives, and I think we'll be substantially under that number”Health
“I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases. But I don't want to be held to that, because it's -- excuse me -- deaths.”Health
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”Health
“So the whole process is going to take a year, a year and a half at least.”Health
“It's going to disappear. One day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear.”Health
“When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero”Health
“If things stay stable in the conflicted areas, humanity will see its last case of polio this year.”Health
“respiratory-spread pathogen would kill more than 30 million people in less than a year. And there is a reasonable probability of that taking place in the years ahead.”Health
“We will definitely get surprised in the next few years.”Health
“It's just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists.”Health
“If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.”Health
“In 1990, one in 10 children in the world died before age 5. Today, it's one in 20. By 2030, that number will be one in 40.”Health
“In 10 to 20 years, we will have a human body shop at which we will simply order organs on demand”Health
“I doubt very much if within 10-15 years … I won’t be able to ask Siri’s great great grandchild (Version 9.0?) for an opinion far more accurate than the one I get today”Health
“Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born”Health
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.”Health