The world will record its last case of (wild) polio in 2017.
Unresolvable ●●●●●
“If things stay stable in the conflicted areas, humanity will see its last case of polio this year.”
- Said on
- 24 October 2017 · Remarks reported by CNBC around World Polio Day, October 2017
- Source
- Bill Gates predicts polio will be eliminated this year · Fox News
- Should come true
- 2017
- How sure they sounded
- conditional hedge: "If things stay stable in the conflicted areas"
- Categories
- Health
- Importance
- 4 of 5 · Polio eradication would be only the second human disease ever eradicated.
Outcome
Unresolvable
The forecast was conditional on "things stay stable in the conflicted areas". That condition was not met: insecurity and vaccination access problems in Afghanistan and Pakistan persisted in 2017-2018, and wild polio cases continued (33 WPV1 cases in 2018). Under the hedge rule an unmet condition makes it unresolvable, not inaccurate.
- https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6925a4.htm
- https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5d2717fb40f0b61215cea069/Progress-towards-polio-eradication.pdf
History
- 2026-10-16 23:05:13 · created by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:05:28 · scored by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:48:50 · scored by claude
- 2026-10-16 23:49:41 · categorized by claude