Pending ●●●●●
Tariff revenue will substantially replace the US federal income tax.
“Tariffs paid for by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern day system of income tax.”Economy
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Allan Lichtman | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% | |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 50% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 67% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 11 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 67% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 71% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 12 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 44% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 8 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 50% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% | |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% | |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
A major US dollar and sovereign-debt crisis, bigger than the 2008 financial crisis, will hit by the end of 2027.
“Gold and silver are warning about a bigger crisis that's gonna hit either later this year or maybe next year.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
AI will displace about half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within 1-5 years of his May 2025 warning (by mid-2030).
“This is a topic that I warned about very publicly in 2025, where I predicted that AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years, even as it accelerates economic growth and scientific progress.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
US real GDP growth will accelerate in the second half of 2026 compared with the first half.
“Thereafter, deregulation and other fiscal stimuli should turbocharge the impact of lower interest rates and accelerate GDP growth during the second half of 2026.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
US inflation for 2026 will be between 2% and 2.5%.
“As a result, the inflation outlook looks quite good for 2026. We would be between 2% and 2.5%, which is very close to the Fed target.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
During 2026 the Federal Reserve will expand its Treasury purchases beyond $40 billion a month.
“Sometime next year, maybe even the first half of next year, they're going to end up expanding that to more than $40 billion”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow at a 3% to 4% annualized pace in the first quarter of 2026.
“But I would guess that by the first quarter of next year, we'll be back at the 3% or 4% growth pace,”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
AI will cause massive unemployment alongside a large rise in corporate profits.
“It's going to create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
The 2025 US tariffs will cause only a one-time rise in the price level, not a persistent increase in inflation.
“A reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived—a one-time shift in the price level.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
The 2030s will see a higher rate of Fortune 500 companies failing or dropping off the list than any previous decade.
“One of my predictions is the 2030s will see a faster rate of demise of Fortune 500 companies than we've ever seen”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US goods inflation will rise further over summer 2025 as tariffs pass through to consumer prices.
“We've had goods inflation just moving up a bit, and, of course, we expect--as you--as you point out, we, we do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
AI will soon eliminate the need for legal assistants and paralegals.
“Someone like a legal assistant or paralegal — they're not going to be needed for very long.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Because of Trump's tariffs, US year-over-year inflation will rise to at least 3% in 2025.
“I would expect inflation, on a year-over-year basis of this year, to shoot up to at least 3%, or slightly over, because of the tariffs”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
US potential GDP growth will rise to about 4% a year by 2030, driven by AI and other technologies.
“The US economy’s potential growth will approach 4% by 2030”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
The 2025 US tariff upheaval will push the US economy into a recession.
“I think that's probably a likely outcome”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
The US economy will enter a recession as a result of the 2025 Trump tariffs, adding about 2 million unemployed.
“It's more likely than not that we're going to have a recession”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at most once in 2025.
“I think if we're lucky we'll get one rate cut, not four, and it wouldn't surprise me if we get none”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
The April 2025 tariffs will bring a large return of manufacturing jobs and factories to the United States.
“Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country and you see it happening already.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
The Han Chinese ethnicity will effectively vanish (demographically die out) by 2100.
“The actual Han ethnicity is going to vanish from the world by the end of this century.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
US inflation will get back down to the Fed's 2% goal within one to two years, i.e. by end of 2026.
“take another year or two from here, but I, I'm confident that that's the path we're on.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will keep cutting interest rates after its September 2024 cut.
“The good news is, interest rates will continue to come down.”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
US inflation will move back down over the course of 2024 from its early-2024 level (about 2.7% headline, 2.8% core PCE).
“I think--I think my expectation is that we will, over the course of this year, see inflation move back down. That's, that's my forecast.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US CPI inflation rate will turn negative at some point in 2024.
“The Federal Reserve has overdone it, we’re going to see a lot more deflation going forward”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Germany will cease to be an industrial power by October 2038 at the latest (within 10 to 15 years of October 2023).
“we're looking at the end of Germany as an industrial power within 10, probably no more than 15 years”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
China's GDP growth for the first half of 2023 will come in below the 6.2% officially forecast.
“Moreover, the economy will not grow 6.2 percent in the first half, as official sources are predicting.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The White House and congressional Republicans will reach a budget/debt-limit agreement and the US will not default on its debt in 2023.
“I'm confident that we'll get the agreement on the budget and America will not default”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
China will dissolve as a functioning economic entity (economic collapse) before the end of 2029.
“we are on track for the dissolution of China as an economic entity before the end of the decade”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
US inflation will stop falling and settle around 4% by mid-2023.
“I think inflation is going to get sticky in midyear at around 4%.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve's policy rate will rise above 5% (it was 4.25-4.5% at the time).
“I actually think rates are probably going to go higher than 5%”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will get a soft landing: inflation will keep falling, and any recession will be mild.
“And my own prediction is indeed for a softish landing: Inflation does seem to be coming down, and while we might not completely avoid a recession, if we have one it will probably be mild.”Economy