Mohamed El-Erian

US inflation will stop falling and settle around 4% by mid-2023.

“I think inflation is going to get sticky in midyear at around 4%.”

Said on

20 January 2023 · Interview with Bloomberg, as quoted by Fortune

Source

Top Economist Mohamed El-Erian: Inflation will get 'sticky' at 4% amid regime change · Fortune

Should come true

Jul 2023

How sure they sounded

I think

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · Path of US inflation determined Fed policy and the US economic outlook.

Outcome

Partly right

Inflation did stall well above 2% in the second half of 2023: core CPI was 4.8% in June and 3.9% in December 2023. But headline CPI fell to 3.0% in June 2023 and ended the year at 3.4%, below the ~4% he named, so only part of the call held; partial is the cautious score.

Evidence:

• https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07122023.htm
• https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01112024.htm