Pending ●●●●●
By the end of the 2030s, almost every household (in developed markets) will have a humanoid robot at home.
“almost everybody in the 2030s will have a humanoid robot at home”Technology
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Allan Lichtman | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% | |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 50% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 67% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 11 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 67% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 71% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 12 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 44% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 8 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 50% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% | |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% | |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
A cyberattack will take down a Canadian bank by April 2035.
“But over the next 10 years, I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was a cyber attack that took down a Canadian bank.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
By 2045, the bipedal/humanoid robot industry will be larger than the auto industry.
“I think what I would say is this business of bipedal robots or some equivalent like that in various form factors and configurations will be larger than the auto industry within 20 years.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
Threads will become the leading online discussion platform and reach 1 billion users within the next several years.
“I expect Threads to continue on its trajectory to become the leading discussion platform and eventually reach 1 billion people over the next several years.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
Very useful quantum computers will not arrive before roughly 2040, most likely around 2045, and by 2055 at the latest.
“15 years for useful quantum computers and that would be on the early side. 30 years is probably on the late side. If you picked 20 years a whole bunch of us would believe it.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
A one-person company will reach a $1 billion valuation, enabled by AI.
“Which would have been unimaginable without AI and now will happen.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
By 2038, quantum computers will be powerful enough to break today's standard encryption codes (e.g. RSA).
“We're talking about ten, 15 years in the future when quantum computers are so powerful they can break any code.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
Chips such as GPUs will no longer get cheaper over time; prices at a given performance tier will not fall as they did under Moore's Law.
“And so the idea that the chip is going to go down in cost over time, unfortunately, is a story of the past”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of 2031, the metaverse will reach a billion people and host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce.
“Our hope is that within the next decade, the metaverse will reach a billion people, host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce, and support jobs for millions of creators and developers.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of 2029, Meta's VR headsets will be clearly better than laptops and computers for almost every use case.
“By the end of this decade or even by the middle of the decade, I would guess that we're going to reach a point where our VR devices will start to be clearly better for almost every use case than our laptops and computers are.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
Breakthrough augmented reality glasses that redefine how people use technology will arrive before the end of 2029.
“at some point in the 2020s, we will get breakthrough augmented reality glasses that will redefine our relationship with technology.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
During the 2030s, nanorobots sent into the human brain will provide full-immersion virtual reality and connect the neocortex to the cloud.
“In the 2030s we are going to send nanorobots into the brain that will provide full immersion virtual reality from within the nervous system and will connect our neocortex to the cloud.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
The number of connected IoT chips/devices will grow to one trillion by the end of 2037.
“Smartphones no — but IoT chips will grow to a trillion chips — so we will have 1TR subscribers in the next 20 years.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
By April 2021, most of the content people see and share on Facebook day to day will be video.
“I wouldn't be surprised if you fast-forward five years and most of the content that people see on Facebook and are sharing on a day-to-day basis is video.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
About 5 billion people will be online within a decade of April 2013 (by 2023).
“Now think about how amazing it will be when 5B come online in a decade.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Everyone on Earth will be connected to the internet by the end of the 2010s (2019).
“By the end of the decade, everyone on Earth will be connected.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Close to 400 million PCs will be sold worldwide in the 12 months after September 2012.
“There's going to be close to 400m PCs sold in the next year, which makes it a big market.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
Moore's Law (doubling of transistor density roughly every two years) will collapse by around 2022.
“In about 10 years or so, we will see the collapse of Moore's Law”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Within six months (by June 2012), app developers will develop for Android first rather than iOS.
“Six months from now you'll say the opposite.”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
By August 2021, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones.
“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Contact lenses giving wearers direct internet access will exist within 15 years of April 2011 (by April 2026).
“Well, as you mentioned, we’re going to have the internet in our contact lens, perhaps within 10 to 15 years.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By mid-2018 all media will be delivered over IP networks and no newspapers or magazines will be delivered in paper form.
“there will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Apple's iPhone will never gain a significant share of the mobile phone market.
“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Google will turn out to be a one-hit wonder, failing to build major businesses beyond search.
“The hottest company right now — the one nobody thinks can do any wrong — may just be a one-hit wonder.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Email spam will be a solved problem by January 2006.
“Two years from now, spam will be solved”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
Conventional silicon computers will reach about 20 million billion operations per second (a high estimate of human-brain capacity) before 2020.
“achieving even a conservatively high estimate of the information processing capacity of the human brain … will be achieved by conventional silicon circuits prior to 2020.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By November 2006, the Tablet PC will be the best-selling form of personal computer in the United States.
“within five years I predict it will be the most popular form of PC sold in America”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
By 2010 TVs will understand spoken commands, identify the person named from your contacts, and relay a message to them.
“I guarantee, ten years from now I'm going to yell at my television set, 'Hey, Bill; did you see that putt?'”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
PayPal will make it nearly impossible for corrupt governments to steal citizens' wealth through inflation and currency devaluation, because people will switch to stronger currencies.
“It will be nearly impossible for corrupt governments to steal wealth from their people through their old means”Technology
Right, but late ●●●●●
By 2009 supercomputers will reach at least 20 petaflops, matching the hardware capacity of the human brain.
“Supercomputers match at least the hardware capacity of the human brain … 20 million billion calculations per second (20 petaflops).”Technology