Marc Andreessen

By August 2021, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones.

Partly right ●●●●●
“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones”
Said on
20 August 2011 · Essay "Why Software Is Eating the World", Wall Street Journal, reposted on a16z.com
Source
Why Software Is Eating the World · Andreessen Horowitz
Should come true
Aug 2021
How sure they sounded
I expect
Categories
Technology
Importance
4 of 5 · Global smartphone adoption determines who has Internet access worldwide.

Outcome

Partly right

GSMA reports 4.3 billion mobile internet users at end-2021 and about 4 billion people using mobile internet via smartphone only by end-2022, short of the 5 billion people predicted, although smartphone subscriptions (not unique people) exceeded 6 billion. Scored partial: adoption was massive but clearly below the stated threshold of unique owners.

Evidence:

History
  • 2026-10-16 23:29:46 · created by claude
  • 2026-10-16 23:30:21 · scored by claude
  • 2026-10-16 23:51:08 · categorized by claude