AI forecaster; former OpenAI governance researcher; executive director of the AI Futures Project and lead author of AI 2027
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“This article claims the global market is around $2B/year in 2021 and is projected to grow around 30%/year. I predict it will grow faster.”AIMarkets
“We’re in a new chip shortage.”TechnologyAI
“Nowadays, hundreds of millions of people talk regularly to chatbots of some sort”AITechnology
“After years of tinkering and incremental progress, AIs can now play Diplomacy as well as human experts.”AI
“China and USA are in a full-on chip battle now, with export controls and tariffs.”GeopoliticsTechnology
“So, the most compute spent on a single training run is something like 5x10^25 FLOPs.”AITechnology
“Not only that, but they are now typically fine-tuned in various ways--for example, to answer questions correctly, or produce engaging conversation as a chatbot.”AI
“OpenAI, Google, Facebook, and DeepMind all have gigantic multimodal transformers, similar in size to GPT-3 but trained on images, video, maybe audio too, and generally higher-quality data.”AI