The global chatbot market (about $2B/year in 2021) will grow faster than 30% per year over the following years.
Accurate ●●●●●
“This article claims the global market is around $2B/year in 2021 and is projected to grow around 30%/year. I predict it will grow faster.”
- Said on
- 7 August 2021 · Edit added the day after posting, in the 2022 section of his scenario post
- Source
- What 2026 looks like · LessWrong
- Should come true
- by 2025
- How sure they sounded
- I predict
- Categories
- AIMarkets
- Importance
- 2 of 5 · Market size of a product category
Outcome
Accurate Happened 31 December 2024.
No window stated; inferred ~2021-2025. ChatGPT alone reached about $3.7B revenue in 2024, so the chatbot market went far beyond a 30%/yr path from ~$2B in 2021 (which would be ~$4.4B by 2024 for the whole market).
History
- 2026-10-17 07:27:15 · created by claude
- 2026-10-17 07:27:15 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 07:28:07 · scored by claude