Daniel Kokotajlo

By 2024 the US and China will be in a full-on semiconductor conflict involving export controls and tariffs.

“China and USA are in a full-on chip battle now, with export controls and tariffs.”

Said on

6 August 2021 · 2024 section of his year-by-year AI scenario post

Source

What 2026 looks like · LessWrong

Should come true

2024

How sure they sounded

stated as fact in his best-guess scenario

Categories

GeopoliticsTechnology

Importance

4 of 5 · US-China tech conflict shapes global trade and the chip industry

Outcome

Accurate Happened 14 May 2024.

The US imposed sweeping advanced-chip export controls on China in Oct 2022 (tightened 2023 and 2024), and in May 2024 raised tariffs on Chinese semiconductors to 50% by 2025; China retaliated with export curbs on gallium and germanium.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China
• https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/05/14/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-action-to-protect-american-workers-and-businesses-from-chinas-unfair-trade-practices/