Daniel Kokotajlo

By 2025 AI systems will play the negotiation game Diplomacy as well as human experts.

“After years of tinkering and incremental progress, AIs can now play Diplomacy as well as human experts.”

Said on

6 August 2021 · 2025 section of his year-by-year AI scenario post

Source

What 2026 looks like · LessWrong

Should come true

2025

How sure they sounded

stated as fact in his best-guess scenario

Categories

AI

Importance

2 of 5 · A notable AI research milestone

Outcome

Accurate Happened 22 November 2022.

Meta's CICERO, announced in November 2022 (Science), achieved human-level play in online Diplomacy, ranking in the top 10% of players who played more than one game, well before the 2025 date in the scenario.

Evidence:

• https://ai.meta.com/blog/cicero-ai-negotiates-persuades-and-cooperates-with-people/
• https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade9097