Accurate ●●●●●
With the American Rescue Plan passed, the US will return to full employment by the end of 2022.
“Well, I would expect that, if this package is passed, that we would get back to full employment next year.”EconomyPolitics
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 10 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 81% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 16 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 82% |
| Barack Obama | Politician | 9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 67% |
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Bill McKibben | Commentator | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 90% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Daniel Kokotajlo | AI researcher | 8 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 94% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 18 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 83% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Ian Bremmer | Commentator | 11 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 82% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 17 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 16 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 64% |
| John Mearsheimer | Academic | 11 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 78% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 56% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 30% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Nancy Pelosi | Politician | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20% |
| Nate Silver | Commentator | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 26 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Stephen Hawking | Scientist | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 64% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The Biden $1.9 trillion stimulus will set off US inflation pressures of a kind not seen in a generation (roughly since the early 1990s or before).
“There is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation”EconomyPolitics
Partly right ●●●●●
The US stock market bubble of 2020 will burst within about two years (by early 2023), with damaging effects on the economy and portfolios.
“But this bubble will burst in due time, no matter how hard the Fed tries to support it, with consequent damaging effects on the economy and on portfolios.”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will be performing strongly in the second half of 2021.
“my expectation--and I think many people have the expectation that the second half of next year should--the economy should be performing strongly.”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
Once the pandemic is brought under control in 2021, the US economy will rebound strongly ("come roaring back").
“And it’s also a good bet that when we do, the economy will come roaring back.”EconomyHealth
Partly right ●●●●●
The COVID-19 pandemic will be largely ended in rich countries by the end of 2021 and in the world at large by the end of 2022.
“for the rich world, we should largely be able to end this thing by the end of 2021, and for the world at large by the end of 2022.”HealthEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US unemployment, above 10 percent in mid-2020, will stay high for a long time (no large improvement through at least 2020).
“As a result, unemployment, still in double digits, probably won't get much better for a long time.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US real GDP will fall sharply in Q2 2020 and then surge ("skyrocket") in Q3 2020.
“what's going to happen, in all likelihood, is that you're going to see the second quarter drop a lot, and the third quarter skyrocket”EconomyHealth
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By May 2030, about half of Facebook/Meta's employees will be working remotely on a permanent basis.
“But I think that it's possible that over the next five to 10 years — maybe closer to 10 than five, but somewhere in that range — I think we could get to about half of the company working remotely permanently.”EconomyTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US unemployment rate for May 2020 (reported in June 2020) will exceed 20%.
“I'm looking for rates north of 20, sadly.”EconomyHealth
Unresolvable ●●●●●
US real GDP growth will be very high in the second half of 2020 (Q3 and Q4), above pre-pandemic quarterly growth rates.
“make the case for very, very high growth in the second half of the year.”EconomyHealth
Pending ●●●●●
After a weak U-shaped recovery from the COVID-19 recession, the world economy will fall into an L-shaped "Greater Depression" before the end of the 2020s.
“an L-shaped "Greater Depression" will follow later in this decade”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US economic and unemployment data for March-May 2020 will be terrible, followed by a strong rebound in consumer spending once people feel safe going out again.
“We're going to have some terrible, terrible economic numbers, unemployment numbers right up ahead here for March and April and May … And I think once we perceive that it's safe to go out again I think you're going to see a tremendous amount of spending in the economy”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
After the COVID crash, financial markets will recover well before the real economy does.
“The financial markets are going to lead the real economy.”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The world economy will fall into recession in 2020 because of the coronavirus.
“We are going into a global recession.”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
After the coronavirus shock, the US economy will return to solid growth and a solid labor market.
“I do know that the U.S. economy is strong, and we will get to the other side of this. And I fully expect it will return to solid growth and a solid labor market as well.”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
The Fed will cut rates in response to the coronavirus, and financial markets will still start to freeze up.
“markets will start freezing up even if the Fed cuts rates, which I think it will”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The US (CPI inflation then about 2%) will be hit by a surge of high inflation.
“We are going to be hit with a tsunami of inflation in this country,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2019 (and the US will not fall into recession).
“But my baseline is I don’t see a recession, I don’t think it’s likely. And I expect them to stay on hold during the year.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow about 3% in 2019.
“We still are very, very confident that we are going to have a 3 percent year for 2019”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will not fall into recession in 2019 (he put the odds of a sustained decline at about 1-2%).
“maybe like one percent or two percent or something like that”Economy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
A recession will begin in late 2019 or in 2020.
“quite a good chance that we will have a recession late this year or next year”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US economic growth in 2019 will beat expectations (surprise on the high side).
“The economy is going to surprise on the high side next year”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The US Treasury yield curve will invert in 2019, without signalling a recession.
“The yield curve will invert, and one of the reasons is inflation is going to be much lower than expected”MarketsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Fed will raise rates once more in December 2018 and then pause, instead of the three 2019 hikes it projected.
“It's going to be one and done in December. That's what I'm saying is happening”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow about 3.5% in 2018 and a little over 3% in 2019.
“I think now, you know, we're looking at GDP growth of about 3.5% this year and carrying on to something a little bit north of three next year.”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
By 2020 a financial crisis will occur, followed by a global recession.
“But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession.”EconomyBanking
Partly right ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow at about a 3.5% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2018.
“I would say three and a half is looking like a pretty comfortable number right now”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Universal basic income will be in place across the developed world by the early 2030s (read as end of 2033) and worldwide by the end of the 2030s.
“In the early 2030s, we'll have universal basic income in the developed world, and worldwide by the end of the 2030s.”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
US real GDP will average about 3% annual growth over the 10 years from 2018 to 2027.
“we project that our policies will create about a 3 percent growth rate going forward over the next 10 years.”EconomyPolitics