Mohamed El-Erian

After the COVID crash, financial markets will recover well before the real economy does.

“The financial markets are going to lead the real economy.”

Said on

12 March 2020 · Interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box"; he added that huge liquidity would produce a market "snap back"

Source

El-Erian sees 30% market drop and the world skidding to recession · CNBC

Should come true

by 2022

How sure they sounded

none (stated flatly)

Categories

MarketsEconomy

Importance

3 of 5 · Shape of the market versus economic recovery after the pandemic shock.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 18 August 2020.

Inferred window: about two years. The S&P 500 closed at a record on August 18, 2020, erasing its pandemic losses, while US real GDP did not regain its pre-pandemic level until early 2021 and employment much later, so markets led the real economy.

Evidence:

• https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/sp-500-closes-at-a-record-erasing-last-of-pandemic-losses