Janet Yellen

The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2019 (and the US will not fall into recession).

“But my baseline is I don’t see a recession, I don’t think it’s likely. And I expect them to stay on hold during the year.”

Said on

28 March 2019 · Remarks as former Fed Chair at an investor conference in Fort Worth, Texas

Source

Yellen sees no U.S. recession, says Fed won't cut in 2019 · The Bond Buyer (Bloomberg)

Should come true

2019

How sure they sounded

my baseline is; I don't think it's likely; I expect

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · Fed rate path and recession risk matter to the US economy and markets.

Outcome

Inaccurate Happened 31 July 2019.

The Fed did not stay on hold in 2019: it cut the federal funds rate on July 31, 2019, and cut again in September and October. Her accompanying no-recession call did hold for 2019, but the explicit, time-bound call was the Fed holding rates through the year.

Evidence:

• https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20190731a.htm