Accurate ●●●●●
OpenAI's upcoming GPT-4 will not be a general-purpose AGI capable of arbitrary tasks.
“GPT-4 by itself won’t be a general purpose artificial general intelligence capable of taking on arbitrary tasks.”AITechnology
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Chips such as GPUs will no longer get cheaper over time; prices at a given performance tier will not fall as they did under Moore's Law.
“And so the idea that the chip is going to go down in cost over time, unfortunately, is a story of the past”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Amazon, Meta and Alphabet shares had bottomed as of May 31, 2022 and were ready to rally rather than fall further.
“they’ve fallen so darn far that I think they’ve become metaphors for a whole host of stocks that are now ready to rally because they’ve got nowhere else to go but up”MarketsTechnology
Partly right ●●●●●
Tesla will be in production with the Cybertruck, the new Roadster and the Semi in 2023.
“We'll be in production with Cybertruck next year, we'll be in production with the Roadster, and with Semi”Technology
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By the end of 2031, the metaverse will reach a billion people and host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce.
“Our hope is that within the next decade, the metaverse will reach a billion people, host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce, and support jobs for millions of creators and developers.”TechnologyEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of 2029, Meta's VR headsets will be clearly better than laptops and computers for almost every use case.
“By the end of this decade or even by the middle of the decade, I would guess that we're going to reach a point where our VR devices will start to be clearly better for almost every use case than our laptops and computers are.”Technology
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By May 2030, about half of Facebook/Meta's employees will be working remotely on a permanent basis.
“But I think that it's possible that over the next five to 10 years — maybe closer to 10 than five, but somewhere in that range — I think we could get to about half of the company working remotely permanently.”EconomyTechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
Tesla stock will reach $7,000 per share (pre-split; about $467 after the 2020 and 2022 splits) by February 2025.
“Our confidence level that this stock is heading for $7,000 over the next five years is very high”MarketsTechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Breakthrough augmented reality glasses that redefine how people use technology will arrive before the end of 2029.
“at some point in the 2020s, we will get breakthrough augmented reality glasses that will redefine our relationship with technology.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
Within a decade of 2018, the internet will bifurcate into a Chinese-led internet and a non-Chinese internet led by America.
“I think the most likely scenario now is not a splintering, but rather a bifurcation into a Chinese-led internet”GeopoliticsTechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
Tesla will be profitable and cash-flow positive in both Q3 and Q4 2018 without raising new capital.
“Tesla will be profitable & cash flow+ in Q3 & Q4, so obv no need to raise money.”MarketsTechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
Tesla stock will reach $4,000 per share (pre-2020-split price; $800 after the 2020 5-for-1 split, about $267 after the 2022 3-for-1 split).
“If we're right, this stock in our models is going to $4,000”MarketsTechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
After the January 2018 News Feed changes favoring friends and family, time spent on Facebook and some engagement measures will decline (inferred window: 2018).
“By making these changes, I expect the time people spend on Facebook and some measures of engagement will go down.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
During the 2030s, nanorobots sent into the human brain will provide full-immersion virtual reality and connect the neocortex to the cloud.
“In the 2030s we are going to send nanorobots into the brain that will provide full immersion virtual reality from within the nervous system and will connect our neocortex to the cloud.”TechnologyHealth
Right, but late ●●●●●
Tesla will reach a Model 3 production rate of 20,000 cars per month by December 2017.
“Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in December”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of 2047, a single chip embedded in an everyday item like a shoe will be more intelligent than the human brain.
“One of the chips in our shoes in the next 30 years will be smart than our brain.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
The number of connected IoT chips/devices will grow to one trillion by the end of 2037.
“Smartphones no — but IoT chips will grow to a trillion chips — so we will have 1TR subscribers in the next 20 years.”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
By April 2021, most of the content people see and share on Facebook day to day will be video.
“I wouldn't be surprised if you fast-forward five years and most of the content that people see on Facebook and are sharing on a day-to-day basis is video.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
By 2030, 2 billion people who were unbanked in 2015 will be storing money and making payments with mobile phones.
“By 2030, 2 billion people who don't have a bank account today will be storing money and making payments with their phones.”BankingTechnologyEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
WhatsApp, then at about 450 million monthly users, will reach 1 billion users (inferred window: about 2 years).
“WhatsApp is on a path to connect 1 billion people.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
About 5 billion people will be online within a decade of April 2013 (by 2023).
“Now think about how amazing it will be when 5B come online in a decade.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Everyone on Earth will be connected to the internet by the end of the 2010s (2019).
“By the end of the decade, everyone on Earth will be connected.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Close to 400 million PCs will be sold worldwide in the 12 months after September 2012.
“There's going to be close to 400m PCs sold in the next year, which makes it a big market.”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
Moore's Law (doubling of transistor density roughly every two years) will collapse by around 2022.
“In about 10 years or so, we will see the collapse of Moore's Law”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Within six months (by June 2012), app developers will develop for Android first rather than iOS.
“Six months from now you'll say the opposite.”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
By August 2021, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones.
“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Contact lenses giving wearers direct internet access will exist within 15 years of April 2011 (by April 2026).
“Well, as you mentioned, we’re going to have the internet in our contact lens, perhaps within 10 to 15 years.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
The United States will come to import its next-generation clean technology from China.
“To my fellow Americans, I say watch out: Not only will we be importing toys but also the next generation of clean technology as well”EnergyTechnology
Partly right ●●●●●
By August 2015, the world's best lectures will be available free on the web, and this online education will be better than any single university.
“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By mid-2018 all media will be delivered over IP networks and no newspapers or magazines will be delivered in paper form.
“there will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”Technology