Inaccurate ●●●●●
Google stock will reach $1,000 a share during 2008.
“Google stock reaches $1,000.”MarketsTechnology
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Apple's iPhone will never gain a significant share of the mobile phone market.
“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
By early 2012, internet video will have transformed television so thoroughly that traditional scheduled broadcast TV will look laughably outdated.
“I'm stunned how people aren't seeing that with TV, in five years from now, people will laugh at what we've had”Technology
Unresolvable ●●●●●
Google will turn out to be a one-hit wonder, failing to build major businesses beyond search.
“The hottest company right now — the one nobody thinks can do any wrong — may just be a one-hit wonder.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Email spam will be a solved problem by January 2006.
“Two years from now, spam will be solved”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
Conventional silicon computers will reach about 20 million billion operations per second (a high estimate of human-brain capacity) before 2020.
“achieving even a conservatively high estimate of the information processing capacity of the human brain … will be achieved by conventional silicon circuits prior to 2020.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By November 2006, the Tablet PC will be the best-selling form of personal computer in the United States.
“within five years I predict it will be the most popular form of PC sold in America”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
By 2010 TVs will understand spoken commands, identify the person named from your contacts, and relay a message to them.
“I guarantee, ten years from now I'm going to yell at my television set, 'Hey, Bill; did you see that putt?'”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The dot-com tech-stock boom of early 2000 was very far from ending (said Feb 29, 2000).
“And we will keep doing so until this period is over – and it is very far from ending”MarketsTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By around 2019 a $1,000 PC will perform about 20 million billion calculations per second (20 petaflops), the estimated raw capacity of the human brain.
“But 200 calculations a second times a hundred trillion-fold parallelism is about 20 million billion calculations per second, or about 20 billion mips. And we'll achieve that in a thousand dollar PC or equivalent by around 2019.”TechnologyAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 2024 scientists will have fully decoded (scanned and reverse-engineered) the human brain.
“Certainly within the next 20 to 25 years we will succeed in fully decoding the human brain just as we're now nearing completion of the decoding of the human genome.”TechnologyAIHealth
Inaccurate ●●●●●
PayPal will make it nearly impossible for corrupt governments to steal citizens' wealth through inflation and currency devaluation, because people will switch to stronger currencies.
“It will be nearly impossible for corrupt governments to steal wealth from their people through their old means”TechnologyEconomy
Right, but late ●●●●●
By 2009 warfare will be dominated by unmanned intelligent aerial drones.
“Warfare is dominated by unmanned intelligent airborne devices.”GeopoliticsTechnology
Right, but late ●●●●●
By 2009 real-time speech-translating phone calls will be in common use for many language pairs.
“Translating telephone technology (where you speak in English and your Japanese friend hears you in Japanese, and vice versa) is commonly used for many language pairs.”AITechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 2019 hard disk drives and other rotating or electromechanical computer storage will have been fully replaced by electronic (solid-state) devices.
“Rotating memories and other electromechanical computing devices have been fully replaced with electronic devices.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
By 2009 a $1,000 personal computer will perform about a trillion calculations per second (1 teraflop).
“A $1,000 personal computer can perform about a trillion calculations per second.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 2009 intelligent highways will be in use for long-distance travel, letting cars drive themselves once their guidance systems lock onto roadway sensors.
“Intelligent roads are in use, primarily for long-distance travel. Once your car's computer guidance system locks onto the control sensors on one of these highways, you can sit back and relax.”Self-drivingTechnology
Right, but late ●●●●●
By 2009 a company based west of the Mississippi and north of the Mason-Dixon Line (Kurzweil says he meant Microsoft) will be worth more than $1 trillion in market capitalization.
“A company west of the Mississippi and north of the Mason-Dixon Line has surpassed a trillion dollars in market capitalization.”MarketsTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 2009 most text will be created by speaking (speech recognition) rather than typing.
“Keyboards still exist, but most textual language is created by speaking.”TechnologyAI
Right, but late ●●●●●
By 2009 supercomputers will reach at least 20 petaflops, matching the hardware capacity of the human brain.
“Supercomputers match at least the hardware capacity of the human brain … 20 million billion calculations per second (20 petaflops).”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By around 2005 it will be clear that the Internet's economic impact has been no greater than that of the fax machine.
“By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.”TechnologyEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
People will be able to control televisions, PCs and other information devices by speaking to them.
“Eventually we’ll also be able to speak to televisions, personal computers, or other information appliances.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
Pocket-sized "wallet PCs" will be able to tell users their exact location anywhere on Earth.
“Wallet PCs with the right equipment will be able to tell you exactly where you are anyplace on the face of the earth.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
Cable Internet access to homes will arrive within three to four years of August 1995 (by August 1999).
“I think one of the exciting things that going to happen over the next three or four years is cable Internet access.”Technology
Right, but late ●●●●●
About ten years out (by 2005), multi-megabit data access, including wireless, will be available just about everywhere.
“You’re going to get megabits of data while you’re eating, and you are not even going to think twice about it.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
Within three to five years (by 1999), the Internet/Web will become a new mass medium for society in general.
“three to five years from now there will be a new type of medium for society in general.”Technology
Right, but late ●●●●●
By the early 2000s robotic exoskeletons will let paraplegic people walk and climb stairs.
“Exoskeletal robotic prosthetic aids enable paraplegic persons to walk and climb stairs.”HealthTechnology