Bill Gates

By early 2012, internet video will have transformed television so thoroughly that traditional scheduled broadcast TV will look laughably outdated.

“I'm stunned how people aren't seeing that with TV, in five years from now, people will laugh at what we've had”

Said on

27 January 2007 · Remarks at the World Economic Forum, Davos, January 2007, arguing the internet would revolutionize TV within five years

Source

Microsoft's Gates says viewers will abandon broadcast TV · TV Technology

Should come true

2012

How sure they sounded

stated as fact ("people will laugh")

Categories

Technology

Importance

3 of 5 · A shift from broadcast to internet TV would upend a major media industry.

Outcome

Partly right

By 2012 internet video (Netflix streaming, Hulu, YouTube, smart TVs) was growing fast, but scheduled pay and broadcast TV was still dominant; US pay-TV subscriptions were near their peak, and cord-cutting only took off later in the 2010s. The shift Gates described happened mostly after his five-year window, so partial (the cautious call between partial and late).

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cord-cutting