By 2019 hard disk drives and other rotating or electromechanical computer storage will have been fully replaced by electronic (solid-state) devices.
Inaccurate ●●●●●
“Rotating memories and other electromechanical computing devices have been fully replaced with electronic devices.”
- Said on
- 1 January 1999 · Prediction for 2019 from The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999), chapter "2019"; quoted as prediction #16 in the LessWrong volunteer assessment of his 2019 predictions.
- Source
- Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results · LessWrong (GreaterWrong mirror)
- Should come true
- 2019
- How sure they sounded
- none (stated as fact about 2019)
- Categories
- Technology
- Importance
- 2 of 5 · Concerns the data storage industry.
Outcome
Inaccurate
Hard disk drives were still shipped in very large numbers in 2019 (well over 200 million units) and remained the main medium for bulk and data-center storage, alongside optical drives and tape. SSDs had replaced them in most laptops and phones, but not "fully"; the LessWrong assessors also judged this false.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_disk_drive
- https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/NcGBmDEe5qXB7dFBF/assessing-kurzweil-predictions-about-2019-the-results
History
- 2026-10-17 00:03:08 · created by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:03:08 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:03:22 · scored by claude