Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will trade above $100,000 at some point between November 26 and December 31, 2025.
“I think it’s still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high,”Crypto
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin's total market value will exceed gold's by the end of 2035.
“There's no doubt in my mind, bitcoin will be a larger asset class than gold by the year 2035.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will reach $250,000 during 2026.
“My target price for Bitcoin is $250,000 in 2026.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will reach $1 million per coin by the end of 2033 (four to eight years from October 2025).
“I don’t know why it won’t grind up to a million dollars a coin over the next four to eight years,”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will rise about 30% a year to roughly $20 million per coin by 2045.
“My long-term forecast — as it goes up about 30% a year for the next 20 years — we’re headed toward $20 million bitcoin,”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will be priced at about $150,000 at the end of 2025.
“Our expectation right now is [at the] end of the year it should be about $150,000.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Major banks such as Citi and BNY Mellon will begin offering bitcoin custody during 2026.
“I think in 2026, we’ll start to see some of these major banks, like Citi and BNY Mellon, start to custody bitcoin,”BankingCrypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Ether will trade between $10,000 and $12,000 by the end of 2025.
“For Ethereum, somewhere between [$10,000] and $12,000,”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of 2035, Bitcoin will exceed $1 million, gold will reach $30,000 and silver $3,000 per coin.
“I strongly believe, by 2035, that one Bitcoin will be over $ 1 million, Gold will be $30,000, and silver $3,000 a coin”MarketsCrypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will trade in the $175,000 to $350,000 range during 2025.
“MY PRICE PREDICTION for BITCOIN 2025: $175,000 to $350,000”Crypto
Partly right ●●●●●
Bitcoin will close well above $100,000 before the end of 2024.
“I'm still confident bitcoin is going to close much higher before year-end — well above $100,000 before year-end”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will reach $350,000 at some point during 2024.
“I am confident Bitcoin will hit $350,000 sometime in 2024 but for it's only a target, a dream, and a wish.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
By May 2034, all Ethereum rollups will be ZK rollups (no optimistic rollups remaining).
“In the limit (5-10 years into the future), I expect that all rollups will be ZK rollups”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will be priced at $1 million or more by 2030.
“I don't know. Over... at least a million.”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
No crypto asset other than bitcoin, including Ethereum, will get a US spot ETF.
“None of them will be wrapped by a spot ETF, none of them will ever be accepted by Wall Street…”Crypto
Right, but late ●●●●●
Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of June 2024.
“BITCOIN to $100k by June 2024.”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After US spot bitcoin ETFs launch (January 2024), expected investor demand will fail to appear and bitcoin's price (then about $45,000) will fall sharply (read as during 2024).
“Once the ETFs are launched and the highly anticipated institutional and other new investor demand does not show up, look out below!”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin's price will rise over the 12 months after November 2023 as spot-ETF demand grows and the April 2024 halving cuts new supply.
“The price is going to adjust up,”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will soon fall sharply from its roughly $27,000 price in October 2023.
“I can't go out with bitcoin [BTC] because I can't be in something where Mr. Bitcoin is about to go down big”CryptoMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By the end of 2025, gold will reach $5,000/oz, silver $500/oz and Bitcoin $500,000.
“By 2025 gold at $5,000 silver at $500 and Bitcoin at $500,000.”MarketsCrypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will trade above $500,000 by 2030 (ARK base case).
“in fact, we are a little higher than that in our base case for the year 2030, and in our bull case, much higher.”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin (then about $23,000) will fall to $3,250 before starting a longer-term boom.
“I think it goes down to $3,250, and then it starts a longer-term boom,”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin (then about $17,000) will not rise meaningfully above $17,000 and will fall to new lows in the ongoing bear market (read as through end of 2023).
“Don't make the mistake of thinking that #Bitcoin is forming a floor at $17K. It's forming the next ceiling.”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Crypto prediction markets will grow steadily but will not have extreme multibillion-dollar breakout moments.
“I expect prediction markets to not make extreme multibillion-dollar splashes, but continue to steadily grow and become more useful over time.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will reach gold's market value, about $500,000 per coin, by the end of 2029.
“if Bitcoin goes to the value of gold, it’s going to $500,000 a coin, and I think that happens this decade,”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will fall to about $12,000 (from roughly $20,000 in June 2022).
“I think it goes to $12,000, where it was before this whole fiasco began.”Crypto
Right, but late ●●●●●
Ethereum's Merge to proof of stake will happen in August 2022.
“If there are no problems, then the merge will happen in August”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will replace the US dollar.
“Yes, Bitcoin will”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin ("digital gold") will overtake gold as the leading store-of-value asset (exceed gold's market value) by the end of 2029.
“It's pretty clear, digital gold is going to replace gold this decade.”CryptoMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
Speculative markets (crypto and meme stocks) are heading for a historic crash that will inflict huge losses on retail investors.
“All hype/speculation is doing is drawing in retail before the mother of all crashes”MarketsCrypto