Inaccurate ●●●●●
The coronavirus (COVID-19) will disappear from the United States.
“It's going to disappear. One day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear.”Health
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 38% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 67% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 33% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 23 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The number of known US COVID-19 cases (15 at the time) will fall to close to zero within a couple of days.
“When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero”Health
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The world will record its last case of (wild) polio in 2017.
“If things stay stable in the conflicted areas, humanity will see its last case of polio this year.”Health
Pending ●●●●●
During the 2030s, nanorobots sent into the human brain will provide full-immersion virtual reality and connect the neocortex to the cloud.
“In the 2030s we are going to send nanorobots into the brain that will provide full immersion virtual reality from within the nervous system and will connect our neocortex to the cloud.”TechnologyHealth
Unresolvable ●●●●●
A respiratory-spread pathogen (natural or engineered) will kill more than 30 million people within less than a year.
“respiratory-spread pathogen would kill more than 30 million people in less than a year. And there is a reasonable probability of that taking place in the years ahead.”Health
Accurate ●●●●●
The incoming (Trump) administration will definitely face a surprise infectious disease outbreak within the next few years.
“We will definitely get surprised in the next few years.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Deep learning will outperform human radiologists by the end of 2021.
“It's just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists.”HealthAI
Accurate ●●●●●
The next event to kill over 10 million people within a few decades of 2015 will most likely be a highly infectious virus, not a war.
“If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.”Health
Pending ●●●●●
By 2030, the global under-5 mortality rate will fall to 1 in 40 children (2.5%), half the 2015 level.
“In 1990, one in 10 children in the world died before age 5. Today, it's one in 20. By 2030, that number will be one in 40.”Health
Pending ●●●●●
By 2030, almost all countries will include rotavirus (diarrhea) and pneumococcal (pneumonia) vaccines in their national immunization programs.
“Almost all countries will include vaccines for diarrhea and pneumonia, two of the biggest killers of children, in their immunization programs.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon (within a few years of 2015).
“Guinea worm, an incredibly painful disease whose sufferers spend months incapacitated while worms that can be several feet long burst out of their legs, will also be gone soon, thanks in large part to the leadership of President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center.”Health
Pending ●●●●●
By mid-2034, lab-grown human organs will be routinely available to order on demand for transplant.
“In 10 to 20 years, we will have a human body shop at which we will simply order organs on demand”Health
Pending ●●●●●
Within 10-15 years of 2012 (by 2027), a consumer AI assistant will give medical opinions far more accurate than those of the average physician.
“I doubt very much if within 10-15 years … I won’t be able to ask Siri’s great great grandchild (Version 9.0?) for an opinion far more accurate than the one I get today”HealthAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By about 2009 bioengineering will be reversing most diseases, such as cancer, and the processes of aging.
“Over the next 10 years we will be reversing most diseases like cancer and also aging processes”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 2024 scientists will have fully decoded (scanned and reverse-engineered) the human brain.
“Certainly within the next 20 to 25 years we will succeed in fully decoding the human brain just as we're now nearing completion of the decoding of the human genome.”TechnologyAIHealth
Right, but late ●●●●●
By the early 2000s robotic exoskeletons will let paraplegic people walk and climb stairs.
“Exoskeletal robotic prosthetic aids enable paraplegic persons to walk and climb stairs.”HealthTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 1985 there will be an utter breakdown of the planet's capacity to support humanity (Ehrlich's stated meaning of "the end").
“Sometime in the next 15 years, the end will come”ClimateHealth
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The greatest death-toll cataclysm in human history will occur within the lifetimes of people already alive in 1969.
“Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Hundreds of millions of people will starve to death during the 1970s.
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The world death rate will rise substantially (in the 1970s, per the surrounding passage) because of famine.
“At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
India will be unable to feed an additional 200 million people by 1980.
“I don't see how India could possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980.”Health