A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1, if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time.”PoliticsEconomy
“ChatGPT and whatever follows are probably an economic story for the 2030s, not for the next few years.”AIEconomy
“Rate hikes don't matter. Inflation is headed much higher, thanks to bank bailouts”EconomyBanking
“One reason we had the 2008 financial crisis was too much government regulation. That's why this crisis will be worse.”BankingEconomy
“My best guess would probably be 5.5% or a little above 5.5%. But 6% would not surprise me greatly.”MarketsEconomy
“I feel like the ultimate low at this point for stocks is likely to be… July or so of 2024,”Markets
“I'm predicting that gold goes down to $900 to $1,000.”Markets
“I think it goes down to $3,250, and then it starts a longer-term boom,”Crypto
“I think inflation is going to get sticky in midyear at around 4%.”Economy
“And my own prediction is indeed for a softish landing: Inflation does seem to be coming down, and while we might not completely avoid a recession, if we have one it will probably be mild.”Economy
“It should come as no surprise that many economists, including me, expect a recession to begin in 2023.”Economy
“I think 2023 is going to be a very good year for equities.”Markets
“I think the Fed will start bringing down the funds rate by mid-year 2023.”BankingEconomy
“Well, I believe by the end of next year you will see much lower inflation. if there's not-- an unanticipated shock.”Economy
“U.S. core PCE inflation will probably prove rather sticky at around 4% or above”Economy
“Don't make the mistake of thinking that #Bitcoin is forming a floor at $17K. It's forming the next ceiling.”Crypto
“We're more optimistic, expecting no broad-based recession but a rolling one, no continued bear market in stocks”EconomyMarkets
“The unemployment is likely to rise towards 6%”Economy
“My guess is that [the] pound will find its way below parity with both the dollar and euro”MarketsEconomy
“It's not going to be a short and shallow recession; it's going to be severe, long, and ugly,”EconomyMarkets
“My guesstimate is that it will be around 4.5 percent to 5 percent long term, barring shocks”Economy
“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range)”EconomyBanking
“My guesstimate that a significant economic contraction will be required, but it will take a while to happen because cash levels and wealth levels are now relatively high”Economy
“I estimate that a rise in rates from where they are to about 4.5 percent will produce about a 20 percent negative impact on equity prices”MarketsEconomy
“There's no doubt in my mind that we will get a higher number than 9.1 percent.”Economy
“We need five years of unemployment above 5% to contain inflation”Economy
“And I think, given where we have gotten to, it's more likely than not that we will have a recession within the next two years.”Economy
“My sense of this is that given the likely paths of inflation, we’re likely to have a need for nominal interest rates, basic Fed interest rates, to rise to the 4 percent to 5 percent range over the next couple of years.”MarketsEconomy
“So it probably won't be necessary to put the economy through an '80s-style wringer to get inflation down.”Economy
“The Fed's current policy trajectory is likely to lead to stagflation, with average unemployment and inflation both averaging over 5 percent over the next few years”Economy