Ed Yardeni

In 2023 the US will avoid an economy-wide recession (seeing only a rolling, sector-by-sector one), and the stock bear market will not continue.

“We're more optimistic, expecting no broad-based recession but a rolling one, no continued bear market in stocks”

Said on

28 November 2022 · Dr Ed's Video Webcast, Yardeni QuickTakes, November 28, 2022, on the 2023 outlook

Source

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/28/22 · Yardeni QuickTakes

Should come true

2023

How sure they sounded

We're more optimistic, expecting

Categories

EconomyMarkets

Importance

3 of 5 · A contrarian call on the US economy and stock market for 2023, made when the consensus expected a recession.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 2023.

The US economy grew about 2.5% in 2023, and the NBER dates no recession after the brief 2020 contraction. Stocks did not keep falling: the S&P 500 rose sharply in 2023 and set a record high in January 2024, confirming the October 2022 low as the bottom.

Evidence:

• https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/gdp-q4-2023-the-us-economy-grew-at-a-3point3percent-pace-in-the-fourth-quarter.html
• https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions
• https://www.opb.org/article/2024/01/19/the-s-p-500-surges-to-a-record-high-as-hopes-about-the-economy-and-big-tech-grow/