Mohamed El-Erian

US core PCE inflation will stay around 4% or higher at the end of 2023 rather than falling to 2-3%.

“U.S. core PCE inflation will probably prove rather sticky at around 4% or above”

Said on

11 December 2022 · Financial Times op-ed, as quoted by Fortune; the sentence begins "Rather than fall to 2-3% by the end of next year"

Source

Top economist Mohamed El-Erian says the Fed will face these two 'unpleasant choices' next year · Fortune

Should come true

2023

How sure they sounded

probably

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · Path of US core inflation determined Fed policy and the US economic outlook.

Outcome

Inaccurate

BEA data show core PCE inflation was 2.9% year over year in December 2023, within the 2-3% range he said it would not fall to, rather than around 4% or above.

Evidence:

• https://bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-december-2023
• https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/pi1223.pdf