The US will go through a significant economic contraction (recession) as a result of the 2022 rate rises, after some delay.
Inaccurate ●●●●●
“My guesstimate that a significant economic contraction will be required, but it will take a while to happen because cash levels and wealth levels are now relatively high”
- Said on
- 13 September 2022 · LinkedIn article on inflation and interest rates
- Source
- Ray Dalio: Fed to move to 4.5%, stocks to drop by 20% · Kitco News
- Should come true
- by 2025
- How sure they sounded
- My guesstimate
- Categories
- Economy
- Importance
- 3 of 5 · US recession call.
Outcome
Inaccurate
Inferred window: about three years, through 2025. The NBER has dated no US recession since April 2020. Real GDP grew about 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024, and there was no significant contraction in 2025, so the predicted rate-driven contraction did not occur.
- https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA
History
- 2026-10-17 00:14:51 · created by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:14:51 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:15:15 · categorized by claude
- 2026-10-17 00:15:18 · scored by claude