Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US Dollar Index (then about 80) will fall by at least half, to 40 or below.
“I think ultimately, the dollar index will be cut in half, at a minimum,”EconomyMarkets
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 12 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 20% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,700/oz) will make a big move up toward $5,000 an ounce by the end of 2014.
“I think you're going to see a big move sometime in the next couple of years.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 15,000 by the end of 2013.
“Going to the 15,000 level, which a few months ago people were very skeptical of that, we’re talking about the end of 2013. … Odds are 3-to-2-to-1 on that”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
In 2013 a "global perfect storm" (euro debt crisis, US fiscal tightening, China hard landing, emerging-market slowdown) will hit the world economy.
“Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)... then we have a global perfect storm,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Greece will default on its debt and leave the eurozone by the end of 2013.
“it is clear that either this year or next, Greece is highly likely to default on its debt and exit the euro zone.”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Greece will exit the euro, very possibly by the end of June 2012.
“1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.”EconomyPolitics
Unresolvable ●●●●●
China's economy will suffer a hard landing (a sharp growth collapse) sometime after 2013.
“There is a meaningful probability of a hard landing in China after 2013,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
About half of the 800-plus troubled small and medium-sized US banks (roughly 400 banks) will fail in the following few years.
“The biggest banks have been backstopped, but 800-plus small- and medium-sized banks in the US remain on the critical list and half of those will go bust.”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US dollar will collapse, losing 50-70% of its value, before the end of Barack Obama's first term (January 2013).
“I think it will happen before Barack Obama leaves office even if he's only a one-termer. The first initial collapse in the dollar will be about a 50%, 60%, or 70% decline in dollar value.”EconomyMarkets
Right, but late ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,100/oz) will reach about $5,000 an ounce within the next several years (read as by end of 2016).
“I think $5,000 is a reasonable expectation of where gold is headed over the course of the next several years, based on monetary and fiscal policy that is in place.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 index will fall to 600 or below in 2009.
“My main scenario is that it's highly likely it goes to 600 or below,”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
2010-2012 will bring the worst economic and banking crisis since the early 1930s, worse than 2008.
“2010 to 2012 will bring on the greatest economic and banking crisis since the early 1930s”EconomyBanking
Partly right ●●●●●
US GDP will keep contracting throughout 2009, for a cumulative output loss of about 5%, in a recession lasting close to two years.
“U.S. gross domestic product will continue to contract throughout 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5% and a recession that will last close to two years.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US stock market will post a gain for calendar year 2008.
“I think the stock market will have another winning year in 2008.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Fed will cut the federal funds rate to about 3.5% and then begin raising it in the second half of 2008.
“I believe that the Fed will get rates down to 3.5%, before ratcheting them upward in the second half of next year.”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will avoid a recession in 2008, with real GDP growth of 1.5% to 2.5% for the year.
“Overall I expect 1.5% to 2.5% GDP growth in 2008 and I believe the economy will avoid a recession.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Lenders and the government will tighten credit standards and US home prices will fall sharply from their highs.
“You're going to start to see both the government and the lenders re-imposing lending standards and tightening up on credit. And these sky-high real estate prices are going to come crashing back down to earth.”EconomyBanking
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will suffer a hard landing and fall into recession, driven by a housing bust (probability above 70%).
“U.S. Hard Landing and Recession Steaming Ahead: Now More Likely Than a 70% Probability”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US house prices will fall a long way and homebuilding will go through a prolonged slump after the 2006 peak.
“If history is any guide, housing prices have got a long way to fall and the housing industry is going to go through a long drought.”EconomyMarketsBanking
Accurate ●●●●●
US consumers will cut spending and rebuild savings as their home equity evaporates, pushing the US economy into a recession.
“And what's going to happen is the American consumer is basically going to stop consuming and start rebuilding his savings, especially when he sees his home equity evaporate. And when you have the economy 70 percent consumption, you can't address those imbalances without a recess…”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bush-era deficits will lead to a US fiscal crisis in which the government turns to printing money and interest rates soar.
“My prediction is that politicians will eventually be tempted to resolve the crisis the way irresponsible governments usually do: by printing money, both to pay current bills and to inflate away debt. And as that temptation becomes obvious, interest rates will soar.”EconomyMarketsPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow at a 3% to 4% annualized rate in the second half of 2002.
“We’re on the road to 3% to 4% growth in the second half of this year.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The S&P 500 made its bear-market low in July 2002 and will not fall below it afterward.
“But it’s my belief that the S&P has probably hit a low.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US will go through a deflationary, 1930s-style depression from 2010 to 2023.
“From 2010 to 2023 we will see a depressionary, deflationary downturn that will look and feel like the 30s.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
A new US stock bull market will begin by late 2002, after the 2000-2001 bear market.
“By late 2002, we'll see a new bull market.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 35,000 by the end of 2009.
“we are still predicting the Dow at 35,000 in late 2008 or 2009.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will be closer to 36,000 than to 10,000 (i.e. above 23,000) by January 2010.
“if the Dow is closer to 10,000 than to 36,000 ten years from now, … we will each give $1,000”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Yardeni put a 70% probability on a Y2K-triggered worldwide recession starting in January 2000, lasting about 12 months and as severe as the 1973-74 global recession.
“Currently, I believe there is a 70 percent chance of such a worldwide recession, which could last 12 months starting in January 2000 and could be as severe as the 1973-74 global recession.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By around 2005 it will be clear that the Internet's economic impact has been no greater than that of the fax machine.
“By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.”TechnologyEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
The US economy will grow at moderately strong rates continuously from late 1997 into 2002.
“The economy will start to grow at moderately strong rates from late 1997 into 2002.”Economy