Jeremy Siegel

The US economy will avoid a recession in 2008, with real GDP growth of 1.5% to 2.5% for the year.

“Overall I expect 1.5% to 2.5% GDP growth in 2008 and I believe the economy will avoid a recession.”

Said on

17 December 2007 · 2008 outlook column for Yahoo Finance, excerpted on Crossing Wall Street

Source

Jeremy Siegel's Outlook for 2008 · Crossing Wall Street

Should come true

2008

How sure they sounded

I expect; I believe

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · Call on whether the US economy would enter recession; matters to the whole country.

Outcome

Inaccurate

The NBER dated a US recession beginning in December 2007 and lasting until June 2009, so the economy did not avoid recession in 2008. Real GDP growth for 2008 was roughly zero (about -0.1%), well below the 1.5%-2.5% forecast.

Evidence:

• https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcements
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Recession_in_the_United_States