Ed Yardeni

Yardeni put a 70% probability on a Y2K-triggered worldwide recession starting in January 2000, lasting about 12 months and as severe as the 1973-74 global recession.

“Currently, I believe there is a 70 percent chance of such a worldwide recession, which could last 12 months starting in January 2000 and could be as severe as the 1973-74 global recession.”

Said on

7 June 1999 · Statement on Yardeni's website (yardeni.com), quoted in a guest commentary in Enterprise Systems Journal; statement date is the article's publication date

Source

guest commentary: Calm Before the Y2K Storm · Enterprise Systems

Should come true

2000

How sure they sounded

Currently, I believe there is a 70 percent chance

Categories

Economy

Importance

4 of 5 · A severe global recession would have had major worldwide economic consequences; the call was widely publicized.

Outcome

Inaccurate

Y2K caused only minor disruptions, and no worldwide recession began in January 2000; the US expansion continued until March 2001 (NBER), and world growth in 2000 was strong. A 70% call on a severe 1973-74-style global recession is clearly contradicted by the outcome.

Evidence:

• https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2000_problem