Kevin Hassett

The Dow Jones Industrial Average will be closer to 36,000 than to 10,000 (i.e. above 23,000) by January 2010.

“if the Dow is closer to 10,000 than to 36,000 ten years from now, … we will each give $1,000”

Said on

1 January 2000 · Co-authored with James K. Glassman: letter in The Atlantic (January 2000 issue) replying to reader J. Douglas Van Sant, defending their book Dow 36,000. Statement date is the issue month (exact day unknown); quoted as reproduced by Wikipedia from the Atlantic letter.

Source

Dow 36,000 (quoting Glassman and Hassett's January 2000 Atlantic letter) · Wikipedia

Should come true

Jan 2010

How sure they sounded

offered a $1,000 charity bet on it

Categories

Markets

Importance

3 of 5 · Headline forecast for the main US stock index, widely cited during the late-1990s boom.

Outcome

Inaccurate Happened 14 January 2010.

In mid-January 2010 the Dow closed around 10,680, far below the 23,000 midpoint between 10,000 and 36,000, so the terms of the bet went against the authors. The Dow did not first close above 36,000 until November 2021.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_36,000
• https://crossingwallstreet.com/?p=4773