Jeremy Siegel

US real GDP will grow at a 3% to 4% annualized rate in the second half of 2002.

“We’re on the road to 3% to 4% growth in the second half of this year.”

Said on

31 July 2002 · Interview with Knowledge at Wharton, late July 2002 (published July 31, 2002)

Source

Jeremy Siegel on Stocks: The Worst Is Over · Knowledge at Wharton

Should come true

Q4 2002

How sure they sounded

We're on the road to

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · US growth outlook after the 2001 recession; matters to the whole country.

Outcome

Inaccurate

BEA data (FRED series A191RL1Q225SBEA) show real GDP grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q3 2002 and 0.5% in Q4 2002, well below the predicted 3% to 4%.

Evidence:

• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA