Right, but late ●●●●●
Tesla will operate autonomous robotaxis, in at least some jurisdictions, in 2020.
“I feel very confident in predicting autonomous robotaxis next year”Self-drivingAI
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Tesla's Full Self-Driving will be feature complete in 2019: able to pick you up in a parking lot and drive you to your destination without intervention.
“I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year”Self-drivingAI
Pending ●●●●●
Within a decade of 2018, the internet will bifurcate into a Chinese-led internet and a non-Chinese internet led by America.
“I think the most likely scenario now is not a splintering, but rather a bifurcation into a Chinese-led internet”GeopoliticsTechnology
Pending ●●●●●
The crypto market as a whole will not see another 1,000-fold price increase (to roughly $200 trillion) in the decade after September 2018.
“There isn't an opportunity for yet another 1,000-times growth in anything in the space anymore.”CryptoMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
Tesla will be profitable and cash-flow positive in both Q3 and Q4 2018 without raising new capital.
“Tesla will be profitable & cash flow+ in Q3 & Q4, so obv no need to raise money.”MarketsTechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin will become the world's and the internet's single currency within about ten years (by 2028).
“The world ultimately will have a single currency, the internet will have a single currency. I personally believe that it will be bitcoin”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
After the January 2018 News Feed changes favoring friends and family, time spent on Facebook and some engagement measures will decline (inferred window: 2018).
“By making these changes, I expect the time people spend on Facebook and some measures of engagement will go down.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Robotaxis will arrive in 2019 and self-driving cars will be on the road (for consumers) in 2020.
“Year after that, robot taxis. The year after that, self-driving cars.”Self-drivingAI
Pending ●●●●●
China will dominate the AI industries by 2030.
“By 2030, they will dominate the industries.”AIGeopolitics
Partly right ●●●●●
China will have caught up with the United States in artificial intelligence by 2020.
“By 2020, they will have caught up.”AIGeopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
China will be better than the United States at artificial intelligence by 2025.
“By 2025, they will be better than us.”AIGeopolitics
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The world will record its last case of (wild) polio in 2017.
“If things stay stable in the conflicted areas, humanity will see its last case of polio this year.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
SpaceX will complete its BFR (Starship) and launch it to Mars around 2022, with at least two cargo ships landing that year.
“I feel fairly confident that we can complete the ship and launch in about five years”Space
Right, but late ●●●●●
Tesla will reach a Model 3 production rate of 20,000 cars per month by December 2017.
“Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in December”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of 2047, a single chip embedded in an everyday item like a shoe will be more intelligent than the human brain.
“One of the chips in our shoes in the next 30 years will be smart than our brain.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
The number of connected IoT chips/devices will grow to one trillion by the end of 2037.
“Smartphones no — but IoT chips will grow to a trillion chips — so we will have 1TR subscribers in the next 20 years.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
The technological singularity (machine superintelligence surpassing human intelligence) will become a reality by the end of 2047.
“I totally believe this concept. In the next 30 years this will become a reality.”AI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
A respiratory-spread pathogen (natural or engineered) will kill more than 30 million people within less than a year.
“respiratory-spread pathogen would kill more than 30 million people in less than a year. And there is a reasonable probability of that taking place in the years ahead.”Health
Right, but late ●●●●●
A Tesla will complete a fully autonomous demonstration drive from Los Angeles to New York, with no human touch, by the end of 2017.
“all the way from LA to New York … by the end of next year”Self-drivingAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
SpaceX will launch the first people to Mars in 2024, arriving in 2025.
“I think, if things go according to plan, we should be able to launch people probably in 2024, with arrival in 2025”Space
Partly right ●●●●●
By April 2021, most of the content people see and share on Facebook day to day will be video.
“I wouldn't be surprised if you fast-forward five years and most of the content that people see on Facebook and are sharing on a day-to-day basis is video.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
By February 2031, the world will discover a clean-energy breakthrough (cheap, reliable, zero-carbon) capable of powering the world and stopping climate change.
“Within the next 15 years—and especially if young people get involved—I expect the world will discover a clean energy breakthrough that will save our planet and power our world.”EnergyClimate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Tesla cars will have complete autonomy (drive themselves) by around the end of 2017.
“We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.”Self-drivingAI
Right, but late ●●●●●
Self-driving cars will be available within three to four years of October 2015 (by October 2019).
“Self-driving cars are going to get here much faster than people think”Self-drivingAI
Accurate ●●●●●
The next event to kill over 10 million people within a few decades of 2015 will most likely be a highly infectious virus, not a war.
“If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.”Health
Pending ●●●●●
By 2030, the global under-5 mortality rate will fall to 1 in 40 children (2.5%), half the 2015 level.
“In 1990, one in 10 children in the world died before age 5. Today, it's one in 20. By 2030, that number will be one in 40.”Health
Pending ●●●●●
By 2030, 2 billion people who were unbanked in 2015 will be storing money and making payments with mobile phones.
“By 2030, 2 billion people who don't have a bank account today will be storing money and making payments with their phones.”BankingTechnologyEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
By 2030, almost all countries will include rotavirus (diarrhea) and pneumococcal (pneumonia) vaccines in their national immunization programs.
“Almost all countries will include vaccines for diarrhea and pneumonia, two of the biggest killers of children, in their immunization programs.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon (within a few years of 2015).
“Guinea worm, an incredibly painful disease whose sufferers spend months incapacitated while worms that can be several feet long burst out of their legs, will also be gone soon, thanks in large part to the leadership of President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center.”Health
Pending ●●●●●
By early 2034, the news industry will be 10 to 100 times larger than it was in 2014.
“I am more bullish about the future of the news industry over the next 20 years than almost anyone I know. You are going to see it grow 10X to 100X from where it is today.”Economy