Eric Schmidt

China will be better than the United States at artificial intelligence by 2025.

“By 2025, they will be better than us.”

Said on

1 November 2017 · CNAS Artificial Intelligence and Global Security Summit, Washington

Source

China Will Surpass US in AI Around 2025, Says Google's Eric Schmidt · Defense One

Should come true

2025

How sure they sounded

will (stated as fact)

Categories

AIGeopolitics

Importance

4 of 5 · US-China AI leadership has major global economic and security consequences.

Outcome

Inaccurate

Stanford's AI Index 2025 found the US produced 40 notable models in 2024 vs China's 15 and had about 12x China's private AI investment; Chinese models reached near parity on benchmarks but did not surpass US ones. The US still led by early 2026.

Evidence:

• https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report
• https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-index-2025