Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will not need to tighten monetary policy to cool post-pandemic inflation.
“For what it's worth, I don't think tapping the brakes will actually be required.”Economy
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin's price will eventually fall permanently to zero.
“While a temporary move up to $100K is possible, a permanent move down to zero is inevitable”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
Once the pandemic is brought under control in 2021, the US economy will rebound strongly ("come roaring back").
“And it’s also a good bet that when we do, the economy will come roaring back.”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
Unless Trump wins, the November 2020 US presidential election will be disputed (Trump will contest the result).
“We are going to have a disputed election, almost certainly”ElectionsPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Donald Trump will lose the 2020 US presidential election (Joe Biden will win).
“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House.”Elections
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US unemployment, above 10 percent in mid-2020, will stay high for a long time (no large improvement through at least 2020).
“As a result, unemployment, still in double digits, probably won't get much better for a long time.”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
After a weak U-shaped recovery from the COVID-19 recession, the world economy will fall into an L-shaped "Greater Depression" before the end of the 2020s.
“an L-shaped "Greater Depression" will follow later in this decade”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The U.S. stock market will have a bad second quarter of 2020 (April-June), following its awful first quarter.
“Just like the first quarter, I'm betting the second quarter will be bad — maybe not as bad as it could be, though”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The US (CPI inflation then about 2%) will be hit by a surge of high inflation.
“We are going to be hit with a tsunami of inflation in this country,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will never reach a price of $100,000.
“Keep dreaming. Bitcoin is never going to hit $100,000!”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will never reach a price of $50,000.
“Bitcoin will never hit 50k.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin's price will eventually fall to zero (inferred window about 10 years, to mid-2029).
“Indeed Bitcoin is now down below 10k. Has lost a third of its value in less than a week. Still a long way to less than zero as its true value is negative not zero given its toxic externalities! It will get to zero in due time.”CryptoMarkets
Unresolvable ●●●●●
A recession will begin in late 2019 or in 2020.
“quite a good chance that we will have a recession late this year or next year”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The Fed will raise rates once more in December 2018 and then pause, instead of the three 2019 hikes it projected.
“It's going to be one and done in December. That's what I'm saying is happening”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
XRP and the other non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies will all go bust (become essentially worthless).
“XRP, all the other ones, they're all going bust.”CryptoMarkets
Partly right ●●●●●
By 2020 a financial crisis will occur, followed by a global recession.
“But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession.”EconomyBanking
Pending ●●●●●
A shattering collapse of civilization will occur within the next few decades after 2018.
“It [a shattering collapse of civilization] is a near certainty in the next few decades, and the risk is increasing continually as long as perpetual growth of the human enterprise remains the goal of economic and political systems.”Climate
Pending ●●●●●
There is a high risk that the number of climate refugees will increase significantly between 2018 and 2030.
“And there is a high risk that over the next 12 years, between now and 2030, the numbers of climate refugees will increase significantly.”ClimateGeopolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US will meet its Paris Agreement commitment (26-28% below 2005 emissions by 2025) despite Trump's withdrawal.
“The country as a whole is going to meet the commitments of the Paris agreement, regardless of what Donald Trump says or does.”ClimatePolitics
Pending ●●●●●
The US will switch to electing the President by national popular vote by around the end of 2026.
“It will take a little time, but I’d be surprised if we didn’t eventually shift to a popular vote for President over the next decade or so.”PoliticsElections
Accurate ●●●●●
Donald Trump will be impeached during his (first) presidential term.
“I’m quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment”Politics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Donald Trump's 2016 election win will bring a global recession.
“We are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight.”EconomyElections
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After Donald Trump's 2016 election win, stock markets will not recover from their election-night fall.
“If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.”MarketsElections
Accurate ●●●●●
Donald Trump will win the 2016 US presidential election.
“So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory”Elections
Accurate ●●●●●
Leaving the EU will make the UK permanently poorer than it would otherwise have been, through lower trade and productivity.
“Brexit will make Britain poorer.”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The Brexit vote will not cause a near-term recession in Britain or the world.
“But right now all the talk is about financial repercussions–plunging markets, recession in Britain and maybe around the world, and so on. I still don’t see it.”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US dollar (Dollar Index then near 99) will crash, with a collapse larger than he had earlier forecast.
“the dollar will crash, just from a higher level, and the collapse will be that much greater now as a result of the huge sucker's rally we've had.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
A US recession will begin in 2016, wiping out most of the jobs created since 2012.
“will be lost in the coming recession that will likely begin in 2016.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,060/oz) will eventually reach $5,000 an ounce.
“It's still going to go there”Markets
Partly right ●●●●●
Russia will move to seize Ukrainian territory including Crimea, Donetsk, Torez, Luhansk, Slovyansk and Odessa.
“And so the Russians are coming. Coming for Crimea, and Donetsk and Torez and Luhansk and Slovyansk and Odessa.”Geopolitics