Paul Krugman

The Brexit vote will not cause a near-term recession in Britain or the world.

“But right now all the talk is about financial repercussions–plunging markets, recession in Britain and maybe around the world, and so on. I still don’t see it.”

Said on

24 June 2016 · Krugman blog post "Brexit: The Morning After" (NYT), quoted by Brad DeLong at Equitable Growth; target window inferred as the near term (through 2017)

Source

Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Brexit: The Morning After · Washington Center for Equitable Growth

Should come true

2017

How sure they sounded

I still don't see it

Categories

EconomyPolitics

Importance

3 of 5 · Whether the referendum shock would tip the UK into recession mattered for the UK and its trading partners.

Outcome

Accurate Happened 31 December 2017.

The UK did not enter recession after the June 2016 vote: GDP kept growing through 2016-2017, unlike the short recession forecast by EY ITEM Club and others, and the Bank of England's Andy Haldane later admitted that the downturn forecasts were wrong. World growth also picked up in 2017.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGDPRSAXDCGBQ