Paul Krugman

The Federal Reserve will not need to tighten monetary policy to cool post-pandemic inflation.

“For what it's worth, I don't think tapping the brakes will actually be required.”

Said on

23 June 2021 · New York Times column "The Week Inflation Panic Died", reprinted in The Salt Lake Tribune (reprint dated June 23, 2021); window inferred as the following 18 months

Source

Paul Krugman: The week that inflation panic died · The Salt Lake Tribune (New York Times syndication)

Should come true

2022

How sure they sounded

For what it's worth, I don't think

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · Whether the Fed would have to tighten affected the US economy and global markets.

Outcome

Inaccurate Happened 16 March 2022.

Inflation rose to 9.1 percent by June 2022, and the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, lifting the federal funds rate to above 4 percent by the end of the year, its fastest tightening since the 1980s. Krugman later wrote that he had been wrong about inflation.

Evidence:

• https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220316a.htm
• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS