Peter Zeihan

Russia will move to seize Ukrainian territory including Crimea, Donetsk, Torez, Luhansk, Slovyansk and Odessa.

“And so the Russians are coming. Coming for Crimea, and Donetsk and Torez and Luhansk and Slovyansk and Odessa.”

Said on

5 October 2015 · Zeihan blog post "Ukraine: Just the Beginning" on zeihan.com, posted Oct 5, 2015 (text written in 2014 to promote The Accidental Superpower)

Source

Ukraine: Just the Beginning · zeihan.com

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

are coming (stated as fact)

Categories

Geopolitics

Importance

4 of 5 · A Russian conquest of southern and eastern Ukraine would be a major European war.

Outcome

Partly right

More than 10 years later, Russia has taken Crimea and most of Donetsk and Luhansk, including Torez, in its 2014 and 2022 wars. It held Slovyansk only briefly in 2014 and never took Odesa. Most, but not all, of the named targets fell, so this is scored partial.

Evidence:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sloviansk