Paul Krugman

Leaving the EU will make the UK permanently poorer than it would otherwise have been, through lower trade and productivity.

“Brexit will make Britain poorer.”

Said on

24 June 2016 · Krugman blog post "Brexit: The Morning After" (The Conscience of a Liberal, NYT), quoted by Brad DeLong at Equitable Growth

Source

Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Brexit: The Morning After · Washington Center for Equitable Growth

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

will (stated as fact)

Categories

EconomyPolitics

Importance

3 of 5 · The long-run economic cost of Brexit matters for the UK's national prosperity.

Outcome

Accurate

Estimates of Brexit's cost so far all point the same way: the CER puts UK GDP about 2.5 percent below a Remain counterfactual, Bloom, Dhingra and Van Reenen estimate 6-8 percent by 2025, and the OBR assumes a 4 percent long-run productivity loss. The size is disputed, but the finding that Brexit made Britain poorer is consistent across studies.

Evidence:

• https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit