Partly right ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow at about a 3.5% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2018.
“I would say three and a half is looking like a pretty comfortable number right now”Economy
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Markets will keep rising through 2018 so that holding cash will badly underperform stocks.
“If you're holding cash, you're going to feel pretty stupid.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Dow will fall to 5,000-5,500 by October 2020.
“We have been bubbling since 2009 – I am projecting that the Dow will go down to 5,000 – 5,500 in the next two to three years”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Cutting the US corporate tax rate (as in the 2017 tax bill) will raise median household wages/income by about $4,000 a year relative to baseline within a relatively short time.
“a tax cut like this very conservatively will increase the median wage by about $4,000 a year over a relatively short time”EconomyPolitics
Pending ●●●●●
There will not be another major financial crisis in the lifetimes of Yellen and her audience.
“I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don't believe it will be”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Donald Trump's 2016 election win will bring a global recession.
“We are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight.”EconomyElections
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After Donald Trump's 2016 election win, stock markets will not recover from their election-night fall.
“If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.”MarketsElections
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After the Brexit vote, the United Kingdom will fall into at least a mild recession (inferred window: within about two years, by mid-2018).
“they’ll more likely than not, I would say, have at least a mild recession.”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The Brexit vote will not cause a near-term recession in Britain or the world.
“But right now all the talk is about financial repercussions–plunging markets, recession in Britain and maybe around the world, and so on. I still don’t see it.”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Leaving the EU will make the UK permanently poorer than it would otherwise have been, through lower trade and productivity.
“Brexit will make Britain poorer.”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
If Trump wins the 2016 election, a protracted US recession will begin within about 18 months of his taking office (by mid-2018).
“If Donald Trump is elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months.”EconomyElections
Accurate ●●●●●
US economic growth will slow to about 1.5% within six months (by mid-2016).
“We're going to have a lower level of growth in six months from now ... about 1.5 percent.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
A US recession will begin in 2016, wiping out most of the jobs created since 2012.
“will be lost in the coming recession that will likely begin in 2016.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US dollar (Dollar Index then near 99) will crash, with a collapse larger than he had earlier forecast.
“the dollar will crash, just from a higher level, and the collapse will be that much greater now as a result of the huge sucker's rally we've had.”EconomyMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,060/oz) will eventually reach $5,000 an ounce.
“It's still going to go there”Markets
Right, but late ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 20,000 during 2016.
“I definitely think we will see Dow 20,000 in 2016”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve (rates then near zero) will never be able to raise interest rates back up.
“They are in a monetary roach hotel, and they will never be able to raise rates back up.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its September 2015 meeting.
“I think after the Fed moves—and I do think they are going to move in September—and the world doesn't end”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Oil prices will not return to $100 a barrel (long-run claim, inferred window about 10 years to 2025).
“But we're not going to go back to a world of... $100 per barrel.”EnergyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Oil prices will rise gradually from about $57 (WTI) over the 18 months to end-2016.
“I think that, over the next year and a half, gradually all [oil] prices are going to go higher.”EnergyMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will rise above 18,000 within six to seven weeks of November 11, 2014 (by about December 30, 2014).
“I believe the next six or seven weeks are going to take us beyond 18,000 on the Dow”Markets
Right, but late ●●●●●
Gold will rise through $2,000 an ounce very quickly (read here as within about a year, by end of 2015).
“it'll go through $2,000 very quickly, and people will be upset that they didn't buy gold at $1,700.”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After topping near 17,000, the Dow will fall to about 5,800 within a few years of August 2014 (by end of 2017).
“the Dow is going to go to about 17,000 and then a few years from now it is going to test the bottom at about 5,800.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
Gold will fall from about $1,400 to around $1,000 an ounce by the end of 2015.
“and why gold prices are likely to move much lower, toward $1,000 by 2015”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US Dollar Index (then about 80) will fall by at least half, to 40 or below.
“I think ultimately, the dollar index will be cut in half, at a minimum,”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Gold (then about $1,700/oz) will make a big move up toward $5,000 an ounce by the end of 2014.
“I think you're going to see a big move sometime in the next couple of years.”Markets
Accurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 15,000 by the end of 2013.
“Going to the 15,000 level, which a few months ago people were very skeptical of that, we’re talking about the end of 2013. … Odds are 3-to-2-to-1 on that”Markets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
In 2013 a "global perfect storm" (euro debt crisis, US fiscal tightening, China hard landing, emerging-market slowdown) will hit the world economy.
“Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)... then we have a global perfect storm,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Greece will default on its debt and leave the eurozone by the end of 2013.
“it is clear that either this year or next, Greece is highly likely to default on its debt and exit the euro zone.”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Greece will exit the euro, very possibly by the end of June 2012.
“1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.”EconomyPolitics