Ray Dalio

Markets will keep rising through 2018 so that holding cash will badly underperform stocks.

“If you're holding cash, you're going to feel pretty stupid.”

Said on

23 January 2018 · CNBC interview at the World Economic Forum, Davos; said markets would continue to melt up, with the late cycle lasting perhaps a year

Source

Ray Dalio Interview From Davos: Market Melting Up, Keep Eye on Interest Rates · Market Folly

Should come true

2018

How sure they sounded

you're going to

Categories

Markets

Importance

3 of 5 · Widely cited market call by the head of the world's largest hedge fund.

Outcome

Inaccurate

In 2018, cash (US Treasury bills, about +1.9%) was the best-performing major asset, while the S&P 500 lost about 4.4% and most other asset classes fell. Holders of cash came out ahead of the market, the opposite of the call.

Evidence:

• https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/01/updating-my-favorite-performance-chart-for-2018/
• https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2019/01/25/gmo-quarterly-letter