Inaccurate ●●●●●
Russia's economy will contract by about a third as a result of the Ukraine war and sanctions.
“its economy is set also to contract by about a third”EconomyGeopolitics
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 45% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Partly right ●●●●●
Europe will slide into recession following the Ukraine war while the US economy outperforms it.
“Overall, the US is likely to outperform Europe, which is likely to slide into recession”EconomyGeopolitics
Partly right ●●●●●
Ukraine's real GDP will fall by well over a third (more than ~33%) in 2022.
“Economic activity in Ukraine is likely to contract by well over a third this year”EconomyGeopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, oil prices will spike to well above $100 a barrel in the short term (inferred window: 2022).
“Oil and natural gas prices will spike further – to well above $100 per barrel – as will many other commodity prices”EnergyGeopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Housing (shelter) costs alone will add more than 2 percentage points to US core CPI inflation in 2022.
“housing alone will likely be enough to push core CPI above 2 percent in 2022”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US inflation in the post-pandemic surge will not reach double digits (10% or more).
“we're not going to get to double digit inflation”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US inflation will get back to the roughly 2% range during 2022.
“Well, I expect that to happen next year.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Fed will "wimp out" and postpone finishing its taper and raising interest rates in the face of stagflation (inferred window about one year, to end-2022).
“They are going to postpone any finishing of tapering or raising rates.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US budget reconciliation package will include the changes needed to bring the US into compliance with the OECD 15% global minimum tax.
“Yes. I am confident that what we need to do to come into compliance with the minimum tax will be included in a reconciliation package.”PoliticsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
US inflation will run higher than the Federal Reserve's own projections (Sept 2021 median: 2.2% PCE inflation for 2022).
“I think inflation will remain higher than the Federal Reserve expects and we're going to have to do something about it.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will not need to tighten monetary policy to cool post-pandemic inflation.
“For what it's worth, I don't think tapping the brakes will actually be required.”Economy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The US unemployment rate will fall below 4 percent by the end of May 2022.
“Job openings are at record levels, and unemployment may well fall below 4 percent in the next 12 months.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US consumer prices will rise about 20% cumulatively over the three to four years from May 2021 (by May 2025).
“I believe in the next three, four years cumulatively we're going to have 20% inflation”Economy
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin's price will eventually fall permanently to zero.
“While a temporary move up to $100K is possible, a permanent move down to zero is inevitable”Crypto
Accurate ●●●●●
With the American Rescue Plan passed, the US will return to full employment by the end of 2022.
“Well, I would expect that, if this package is passed, that we would get back to full employment next year.”EconomyPolitics
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The Biden $1.9 trillion stimulus will set off US inflation pressures of a kind not seen in a generation (roughly since the early 1990s or before).
“There is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
Once the pandemic is brought under control in 2021, the US economy will rebound strongly ("come roaring back").
“And it’s also a good bet that when we do, the economy will come roaring back.”EconomyHealth
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US unemployment, above 10 percent in mid-2020, will stay high for a long time (no large improvement through at least 2020).
“As a result, unemployment, still in double digits, probably won't get much better for a long time.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US unemployment rate for May 2020 (reported in June 2020) will exceed 20%.
“I'm looking for rates north of 20, sadly.”EconomyHealth
Pending ●●●●●
After a weak U-shaped recovery from the COVID-19 recession, the world economy will fall into an L-shaped "Greater Depression" before the end of the 2020s.
“an L-shaped "Greater Depression" will follow later in this decade”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US real GDP growth will be very high in the second half of 2020 (Q3 and Q4), above pre-pandemic quarterly growth rates.
“make the case for very, very high growth in the second half of the year.”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
The US (CPI inflation then about 2%) will be hit by a surge of high inflation.
“We are going to be hit with a tsunami of inflation in this country,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will never reach a price of $100,000.
“Keep dreaming. Bitcoin is never going to hit $100,000!”Crypto
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bitcoin will never reach a price of $50,000.
“Bitcoin will never hit 50k.”Crypto
Pending ●●●●●
Bitcoin's price will eventually fall to zero (inferred window about 10 years, to mid-2029).
“Indeed Bitcoin is now down below 10k. Has lost a third of its value in less than a week. Still a long way to less than zero as its true value is negative not zero given its toxic externalities! It will get to zero in due time.”CryptoMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2019 (and the US will not fall into recession).
“But my baseline is I don’t see a recession, I don’t think it’s likely. And I expect them to stay on hold during the year.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow about 3% in 2019.
“We still are very, very confident that we are going to have a 3 percent year for 2019”Economy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
A recession will begin in late 2019 or in 2020.
“quite a good chance that we will have a recession late this year or next year”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
XRP and the other non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies will all go bust (become essentially worthless).
“XRP, all the other ones, they're all going bust.”CryptoMarkets
Partly right ●●●●●
By 2020 a financial crisis will occur, followed by a global recession.
“But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession.”EconomyBanking