A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“no one will reach critical mass to challenge London's overall European dominance.”BankingGeopolitics
“they’ll more likely than not, I would say, have at least a mild recession.”EconomyPolitics
“Brexit will make Britain poorer.”EconomyPolitics
“But right now all the talk is about financial repercussions–plunging markets, recession in Britain and maybe around the world, and so on. I still don’t see it.”EconomyPolitics
“If Donald Trump is elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months.”EconomyElections
“We're going to have a lower level of growth in six months from now ... about 1.5 percent.”Economy
“the dollar will crash, just from a higher level, and the collapse will be that much greater now as a result of the huge sucker's rally we've had.”EconomyMarkets
“will be lost in the coming recession that will likely begin in 2016.”Economy
“It's still going to go there”Markets
“I definitely think we will see Dow 20,000 in 2016”Markets
“They are in a monetary roach hotel, and they will never be able to raise rates back up.”EconomyMarkets
“I think after the Fed moves—and I do think they are going to move in September—and the world doesn't end”BankingEconomy
“I think that, over the next year and a half, gradually all [oil] prices are going to go higher.”EnergyMarkets
“But we're not going to go back to a world of... $100 per barrel.”EnergyMarkets
“I believe the next six or seven weeks are going to take us beyond 18,000 on the Dow”Markets
“it'll go through $2,000 very quickly, and people will be upset that they didn't buy gold at $1,700.”Markets
“the Dow is going to go to about 17,000 and then a few years from now it is going to test the bottom at about 5,800.”Markets
“I think we see another correction, crash, that is larger than the last one,”Markets
“I think the rich Chinese have all their money in real estate, both at home and abroad, and they are going to get hosed so bad their savings will dissipate and they are not going to be running around bidding up real estate in Australia or anywhere else.”EconomyMarkets
“and why gold prices are likely to move much lower, toward $1,000 by 2015”Markets
“I think ultimately, the dollar index will be cut in half, at a minimum,”EconomyMarkets
“I think you're going to see a big move sometime in the next couple of years.”Markets
“Going to the 15,000 level, which a few months ago people were very skeptical of that, we’re talking about the end of 2013. … Odds are 3-to-2-to-1 on that”Markets
“Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)... then we have a global perfect storm,”Economy
“it is clear that either this year or next, Greece is highly likely to default on its debt and exit the euro zone.”EconomyPolitics
“1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.”EconomyPolitics
“There is a meaningful probability of a hard landing in China after 2013,”Economy
“The biggest banks have been backstopped, but 800-plus small- and medium-sized banks in the US remain on the critical list and half of those will go bust.”BankingEconomy
“I think it will happen before Barack Obama leaves office even if he's only a one-termer. The first initial collapse in the dollar will be about a 50%, 60%, or 70% decline in dollar value.”EconomyMarkets
“I think $5,000 is a reasonable expectation of where gold is headed over the course of the next several years, based on monetary and fiscal policy that is in place.”Markets