Mohamed El-Erian

Despite Brexit, no rival European city (Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin, Amsterdam) will overtake London as Europe's dominant financial centre.

“no one will reach critical mass to challenge London's overall European dominance.”

Said on

7 July 2016 · Telephone interview with Reuters after the Brexit referendum, republished by Fortune

Source

Pimco Ex-CEO Says U.K. Must Get Act Together or Pound Could Drop to $1 · Fortune (Reuters)

Should come true

by 2026

How sure they sounded

none (stated flatly)

Categories

BankingGeopolitics

Importance

3 of 5 · London's status as a financial centre matters to the UK economy and European finance.

Outcome

Accurate

Inferred window: about 10 years (to mid-2026), a long-run claim. London remains Europe's leading financial centre: the 2025 Global Financial Centres Index ranks it second worldwide behind New York and the only European city in the top 10, well ahead of Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and Amsterdam, even though some activity (e.g. share trading) moved to the EU.

Evidence:

• https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2025/03/237617-global-financial-centres-index-places-new-york-city-in-first-london-in-second-but-closing-the-gap/