A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
“In the next five years, this will change completely. You won’t have to use different apps for different tasks. You’ll simply tell your device, in everyday language, what you want to do.”AITechnology
“The singularity is coming in the next ten years”AI
“Which would have been unimaginable without AI and now will happen.”TechnologyAI
“Productivity growth throughout the economy will accelerate dramatically”AIEconomy
“Every child will have an AI tutor that is infinitely patient, infinitely compassionate, infinitely knowledgeable, infinitely helpful.”AI
“He can and will.”ElectionsPolitics
“AIs will get to that ability, to be as good a tutor as any human ever could.”AI
“I expect prediction markets to not make extreme multibillion-dollar splashes, but continue to steadily grow and become more useful over time.”Crypto
“Just guessing, but probably until spring of ‘24”EconomyMarkets
“And so the idea that the chip is going to go down in cost over time, unfortunately, is a story of the past”Technology
“If there are no problems, then the merge will happen in August”Crypto
“We'll be in production with Cybertruck next year, we'll be in production with the Roadster, and with Semi”Technology
“I feel at this point highly confident that we will get to orbit (with the Starship) this year”Space
“If you train a machine as powerful as could be…your GPT-5000, it's never gonna learn about this.”AI
“Yes, Bitcoin will”Crypto
“Our hope is that within the next decade, the metaverse will reach a billion people, host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce, and support jobs for millions of creators and developers.”TechnologyEconomy
“By the end of this decade or even by the middle of the decade, I would guess that we're going to reach a point where our VR devices will start to be clearly better for almost every use case than our laptops and computers are.”Technology
“Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It’s happening.”Economy
“By the end of 2022 we should be basically completely back to normal”HealthEconomy
“In the next decade, they will do assembly-line work and maybe even become companions.”AIEconomy
“In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice.”AIHealth
“I expect prediction markets to become an increasingly important Ethereum application in the years to come.”Crypto
“the Ethereum ecosystem is likely to be all-in on rollups (plus some plasma and channels) as a scaling strategy for the near and mid-term future.”Crypto
“for the rich world, we should largely be able to end this thing by the end of 2021, and for the world at large by the end of 2022.”HealthEconomy
“I bet there’ll be some vaccines that will get out to lots of patients without the full regulatory review somewhere in the world.”Health
“But I think that it's possible that over the next five to 10 years — maybe closer to 10 than five, but somewhere in that range — I think we could get to about half of the company working remotely permanently.”EconomyTechnology
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”Health
“This will release the proof-of-stake network, which will come online this year.”Crypto
“at some point in the 2020s, we will get breakthrough augmented reality glasses that will redefine our relationship with technology.”Technology
“I think the president will get reelected”Elections