Elon Musk

The economic recession (which Musk said had begun) will last until about spring 2024.

Inaccurate ●●●●●
“Just guessing, but probably until spring of ‘24”
Said on
21 October 2022 · Reply on Twitter when asked how long the downturn would last
Source
Elon Musk says we're already in a recession that could last until spring 2024, and only the strong will survive · Fortune
Should come true
Q2 2024
How sure they sounded
Just guessing, but probably
Categories
EconomyMarkets
Importance
3 of 5 · A macro forecast of a long recession, made to a very large audience.

Outcome

Inaccurate

No recession took hold: the US economy grew 1.9% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023, and NBER declared no recession in that period; global output also kept growing. The forecast of a recession lasting until spring 2024 did not come true.

Evidence:

History
  • 2026-10-16 23:57:34 · created by claude
  • 2026-10-16 23:57:34 · categorized by claude
  • 2026-10-16 23:58:06 · scored by claude
  • 2026-10-16 23:58:32 · categorized by claude