Accurate ●●●●●
WhatsApp, then at about 450 million monthly users, will reach 1 billion users (inferred window: about 2 years).
“WhatsApp is on a path to connect 1 billion people.”Technology
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 18 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 70% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of 2035, almost no country will be classified as poor (low-income by 2014 standards); nearly all will be lower-middle income or richer.
“By 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Unless a much better rival displaces it quickly, Bitcoin's network effect will make it the dominant cryptocurrency.
“If something is to displace Bitcoin now, it will have to have sizable improvements and it will have to happen quickly. Otherwise, this network effect will carry Bitcoin to dominance.”CryptoMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
About 5 billion people will be online within a decade of April 2013 (by 2023).
“Now think about how amazing it will be when 5B come online in a decade.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Everyone on Earth will be connected to the internet by the end of the 2010s (2019).
“By the end of the decade, everyone on Earth will be connected.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Close to 400 million PCs will be sold worldwide in the 12 months after September 2012.
“There's going to be close to 400m PCs sold in the next year, which makes it a big market.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
Within 10-15 years of 2012 (by 2027), a consumer AI assistant will give medical opinions far more accurate than those of the average physician.
“I doubt very much if within 10-15 years … I won’t be able to ask Siri’s great great grandchild (Version 9.0?) for an opinion far more accurate than the one I get today”HealthAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Within six months (by June 2012), app developers will develop for Android first rather than iOS.
“Six months from now you'll say the opposite.”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
By August 2021, at least five billion people worldwide will own smartphones.
“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
By August 2015, the world's best lectures will be available free on the web, and this online education will be better than any single university.
“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
The economy will not bounce back quickly from the 2008-09 recession but will instead rebuild slowly from a lower base.
“The economy shrinks and then it doesn't rebound, it rebuilds from a lower base. We're not expecting a bounce.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By mid-2018 all media will be delivered over IP networks and no newspapers or magazines will be delivered in paper form.
“there will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Apple's iPhone will never gain a significant share of the mobile phone market.
“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
By early 2012, internet video will have transformed television so thoroughly that traditional scheduled broadcast TV will look laughably outdated.
“I'm stunned how people aren't seeing that with TV, in five years from now, people will laugh at what we've had”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Cellulosic ethanol will be produced at $1.25 per gallon or cheaper within three years (by January 2010).
“I so believe that $1.25 or cheaper cellulosic ethanol is less than three years away”EnergyClimate
Unresolvable ●●●●●
Google will turn out to be a one-hit wonder, failing to build major businesses beyond search.
“The hottest company right now — the one nobody thinks can do any wrong — may just be a one-hit wonder.”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Email spam will be a solved problem by January 2006.
“Two years from now, spam will be solved”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By November 2006, the Tablet PC will be the best-selling form of personal computer in the United States.
“within five years I predict it will be the most popular form of PC sold in America”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
By 2010 TVs will understand spoken commands, identify the person named from your contacts, and relay a message to them.
“I guarantee, ten years from now I'm going to yell at my television set, 'Hey, Bill; did you see that putt?'”Technology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
PayPal will make it nearly impossible for corrupt governments to steal citizens' wealth through inflation and currency devaluation, because people will switch to stronger currencies.
“It will be nearly impossible for corrupt governments to steal wealth from their people through their old means”TechnologyEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
Pocket-sized "wallet PCs" will be able to tell users their exact location anywhere on Earth.
“Wallet PCs with the right equipment will be able to tell you exactly where you are anyplace on the face of the earth.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
People will be able to control televisions, PCs and other information devices by speaking to them.
“Eventually we’ll also be able to speak to televisions, personal computers, or other information appliances.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
Cable Internet access to homes will arrive within three to four years of August 1995 (by August 1999).
“I think one of the exciting things that going to happen over the next three or four years is cable Internet access.”Technology
Right, but late ●●●●●
About ten years out (by 2005), multi-megabit data access, including wireless, will be available just about everywhere.
“You’re going to get megabits of data while you’re eating, and you are not even going to think twice about it.”Technology
Accurate ●●●●●
Within three to five years (by 1999), the Internet/Web will become a new mass medium for society in general.
“three to five years from now there will be a new type of medium for society in general.”Technology