Steve Ballmer

The economy will not bounce back quickly from the 2008-09 recession but will instead rebuild slowly from a lower base.

“The economy shrinks and then it doesn't rebound, it rebuilds from a lower base. We're not expecting a bounce.”

Said on

22 January 2009 · Microsoft fiscal Q2 2009 earnings conference call with analysts

Source

Ballmer provides grim outlook as economy 'resets' · Computerworld

Should come true

No date given

How sure they sounded

We're not expecting

Categories

Economy

Importance

3 of 5 · About the shape of the recovery from the global financial crisis.

Outcome

Accurate

Inferred window: the recovery from the 2008-09 recession, roughly 2009-2014. The US recovery was the slowest on record: real GDP was still below its pre-recession level two years on, and GDP per capita stayed about 16% below the pre-recession trend in 2018. That matches "rebuilds from a lower base", not a bounce.

Evidence:

• https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/06/how-fast-can-the-u-s-economy-recover-v-shape-vs-swoosh/
• https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2018/august/gdp-labor-force-participation-economic-growth