Partly right ●●●●●
Global supply chain and US port bottlenecks will work themselves out during 2022.
“And I think this stuff will work itself out over the course of next year.”Economy
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 69% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US inflation will get back to the roughly 2% range during 2022.
“Well, I expect that to happen next year.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US budget reconciliation package will include the changes needed to bring the US into compliance with the OECD 15% global minimum tax.
“Yes. I am confident that what we need to do to come into compliance with the minimum tax will be included in a reconciliation package.”PoliticsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
US job creation will be strong over summer 2021 and into the fall of 2021.
“So you put all those together, I would expect that we would see strong job creation building up over the summer and going into--going into the fall.”Economy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The US unemployment rate will fall below 4 percent by the end of May 2022.
“Job openings are at record levels, and unemployment may well fall below 4 percent in the next 12 months.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Reopening price increases in 2021 will not lead to persistently higher US inflation above the Fed's 2% goal.
“In an episode of one-time price increases as the economy reopens is not the same thing as, and is not likely to lead to, persistently higher year-over-year inflation into the future”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
US elementary school children will be able to get a COVID-19 vaccine at the earliest by the end of 2021, and very likely in the first quarter of 2022.
“If you project realistically, when we will be able to get enough data to be able to say that elementary school children will be able to be vaccinated, I would think that would be, at the earliest, the end of the year, and very likely the first quarter of 2022,”Health
Accurate ●●●●●
By April 2021, virtually anyone in the US, in any category, will be able to start getting a COVID-19 vaccine.
“by the time we get to April, that will be what I would call for better wording 'open season,' namely that virtually everybody and anybody, in any category, could start to get vaccinated”Health
Accurate ●●●●●
With the American Rescue Plan passed, the US will return to full employment by the end of 2022.
“Well, I would expect that, if this package is passed, that we would get back to full employment next year.”EconomyPolitics
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The Biden $1.9 trillion stimulus will set off US inflation pressures of a kind not seen in a generation (roughly since the early 1990s or before).
“There is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will be performing strongly in the second half of 2021.
“my expectation--and I think many people have the expectation that the second half of next year should--the economy should be performing strongly.”EconomyHealth
Partly right ●●●●●
A majority of the US population will likely not be vaccinated against COVID-19 until the end of 2021.
“But by the time you mobilize the distribution of the vaccine and get a majority or more of the population vaccinated and protected, that's likely not going to happen until the end of 2021,”Health
Unresolvable ●●●●●
There is a reasonably good chance a COVID-19 vaccine will be available in the US by the very beginning of 2021.
“I still think there is a reasonably good chance that by the very beginning of 2021, if we're going to have a vaccine, that we will have it by then,”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US unemployment rate for May 2020 (reported in June 2020) will exceed 20%.
“I'm looking for rates north of 20, sadly.”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
US real GDP growth will be very high in the second half of 2020 (Q3 and Q4), above pre-pandemic quarterly growth rates.
“make the case for very, very high growth in the second half of the year.”EconomyHealth
Accurate ●●●●●
COVID-19 will still be circulating in the US in fall 2020.
“we will have coronavirus in the Fall. I am convinced of that because of the degree of transmissibility that has the global nature.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US COVID-19 outbreak will cause roughly 100,000 to 200,000 deaths (a hedged estimate with no stated time frame).
“I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases. But I don't want to be held to that, because it's -- excuse me -- deaths.”Health
Accurate ●●●●●
After the coronavirus shock, the US economy will return to solid growth and a solid labor market.
“I do know that the U.S. economy is strong, and we will get to the other side of this. And I fully expect it will return to solid growth and a solid labor market as well.”EconomyHealth
Partly right ●●●●●
The full COVID-19 vaccine development process, beyond the phase 1 trial, will take at least a year to a year and a half from March 2020.
“So the whole process is going to take a year, a year and a half at least.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2019 (and the US will not fall into recession).
“But my baseline is I don’t see a recession, I don’t think it’s likely. And I expect them to stay on hold during the year.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow about 3% in 2019.
“We still are very, very confident that we are going to have a 3 percent year for 2019”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow at about a 3.5% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2018.
“I would say three and a half is looking like a pretty comfortable number right now”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Cutting the US corporate tax rate (as in the 2017 tax bill) will raise median household wages/income by about $4,000 a year relative to baseline within a relatively short time.
“a tax cut like this very conservatively will increase the median wage by about $4,000 a year over a relatively short time”EconomyPolitics
Pending ●●●●●
There will not be another major financial crisis in the lifetimes of Yellen and her audience.
“I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don't believe it will be”BankingEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
The incoming (Trump) administration will definitely face a surprise infectious disease outbreak within the next few years.
“We will definitely get surprised in the next few years.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
After the Brexit vote, the United Kingdom will fall into at least a mild recession (inferred window: within about two years, by mid-2018).
“they’ll more likely than not, I would say, have at least a mild recession.”EconomyPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
If Trump wins the 2016 election, a protracted US recession will begin within about 18 months of his taking office (by mid-2018).
“If Donald Trump is elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months.”EconomyElections
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will be closer to 36,000 than to 10,000 (i.e. above 23,000) by January 2010.
“if the Dow is closer to 10,000 than to 36,000 ten years from now, … we will each give $1,000”Markets