Accurate ●●●●●
The Democratic nominee will win the 2008 US presidential election.
“the Democrats will recapture the White House next fall”Elections
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 79% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 21 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 17 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 43% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 24 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 30% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Accurate ●●●●●
Lenders and the government will tighten credit standards and US home prices will fall sharply from their highs.
“You're going to start to see both the government and the lenders re-imposing lending standards and tightening up on credit. And these sky-high real estate prices are going to come crashing back down to earth.”EconomyBanking
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will suffer a hard landing and fall into recession, driven by a housing bust (probability above 70%).
“U.S. Hard Landing and Recession Steaming Ahead: Now More Likely Than a 70% Probability”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US house prices will fall a long way and homebuilding will go through a prolonged slump after the 2006 peak.
“If history is any guide, housing prices have got a long way to fall and the housing industry is going to go through a long drought.”EconomyMarketsBanking
Accurate ●●●●●
US consumers will cut spending and rebuild savings as their home equity evaporates, pushing the US economy into a recession.
“And what's going to happen is the American consumer is basically going to stop consuming and start rebuilding his savings, especially when he sees his home equity evaporate. And when you have the economy 70 percent consumption, you can't address those imbalances without a recess…”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Hillary Clinton will win her November 2006 New York Senate re-election by a large margin.
“I don't want to jinx her, but she's going to win overwhelmingly.”Elections
Pending ●●●●●
Atmospheric CO2 will reach the projected level he pointed to on his chart (about 500 ppm) by 2056.
“Within less than 50 years, it will be here,”Climate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Glacier National Park will have lost its glaciers by about 2021.
“Within 15 years this will be the park formerly known as Glacier”Climate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Mount Kilimanjaro's snow and ice will be gone by the end of 2016.
“Within the decade, there will be no more snows of Kilimanjaro.”Climate
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bush-era deficits will lead to a US fiscal crisis in which the government turns to printing money and interest rates soar.
“My prediction is that politicians will eventually be tempted to resolve the crisis the way irresponsible governments usually do: by printing money, both to pay current bills and to inflate away debt. And as that temptation becomes obvious, interest rates will soar.”EconomyMarketsPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The People's Republic of China (Communist Party rule) will fall by the end of 2011.
“The end of the modern Chinese state is near. The People's Republic has five years, perhaps ten, before it falls.”Politics
Partly right ●●●●●
Al Gore will win the 2000 US presidential election (Lichtman's Keys model was then described as forecasting the popular-vote winner).
“Election 2000: The Keys Point to Gore.”Elections
Inaccurate ●●●●●
China will come to have a free press, driven by globalization.
“China's going to have a free press”Politics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The dot-com tech-stock boom of early 2000 was very far from ending (said Feb 29, 2000).
“And we will keep doing so until this period is over – and it is very far from ending”MarketsTechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By around 2005 it will be clear that the Internet's economic impact has been no greater than that of the fax machine.
“By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.”TechnologyEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US real GDP growth will not be much above 2 percent a year over the next few years (1997-2000).
“So standard economic analysis suggests that we cannot look forward to growth at a rate of much more than 2 percent over the next few years.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Before 1985 the world will enter a genuine age of resource scarcity.
“before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 2000 the UK will be a group of impoverished islands of about 70 million hungry people, with an even chance that England will no longer exist.
“By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people … If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”PoliticsEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By 1985 there will be an utter breakdown of the planet's capacity to support humanity (Ehrlich's stated meaning of "the end").
“Sometime in the next 15 years, the end will come”ClimateHealth
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The greatest death-toll cataclysm in human history will occur within the lifetimes of people already alive in 1969.
“Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
India will be unable to feed an additional 200 million people by 1980.
“I don't see how India could possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The world death rate will rise substantially (in the 1970s, per the surrounding passage) because of famine.
“At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.”Health
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Hundreds of millions of people will starve to death during the 1970s.
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.”Health